【摘要】 为进一步了解泰安市水资源综合状况，基于“四水四定”准则构建该市水资源承载力评价指标体系，采用改进博弈论云模型对其2010年、2015年、2020年和2023年水资源承载力进行评价，并利用障碍度模型识别影响水资源承载力的主要障碍因子。结果表明：主客观权重中分别位于前列的万元工业增加值用水量(C₂₄)和农村居民人均生活用水量(C₃₄)等指标，经改进博弈论组合赋权后，使其组合权重处于相对合理区间，有效缓解了单一赋权方法对某一指标的倾斜问题；典型年份泰安市水资源承载能力呈波动上升趋势，评价等级由2010年和2015年的Ⅲ级（临界承载）提升为2020年和2023年的Ⅱ级（紧承载）;制约子系统由2010年的“以水定产”向2023年的“以水定人”转变，这与泰安市的经济社会发展阶段相适应；其中，人均水资源量、每公顷工业用地用水量和重点河湖生态流量保障率等指标的障碍度在研究期长期位于前列，未来应通过加强刚性约束、产业结构升级和水资源管理等工作，不断提升泰安市水资源承载能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to further understand the comprehensive status of water resources in Taian City, this study established a water resource carrying capacity evaluation index system based on the “basing four aspects on water resources” principle. Using an improved game theory cloud model, it evaluated water resource carrying capacity in 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2023. The obstacle degree model was employed to identify key obstacle factors affecting water resource carrying capacity. The results showed that: Key indicators such as water consumption per 10 000 yuan of industrial added value(C₂₄) and per capita domestic water consumption for rural residents(C₃₄), which ranked high in both subjective and objective weighting results, were assigned combination weights within a relatively reasonable range through improved game theory-based combined weighting. This effectively mitigated the bias on certain indicators caused by relying on a single weighting method. During the typical years, the water resources carrying capacity of Taian City showed a fluctuating and improving trend. Its evaluation grade rose from Grade Ⅲ（critical load） in 2010 and 2015 to Grade Ⅱ（tightly load） in 2020 and 2023. The constraint subsystem evolved from “basing industrial development on water resources” in 2010 to “basing population development on water resources” in 2023, aligning with Taian’s socio-economic development stage. Key indicators like per capita water resources, water consumption per hectare of industrial land, and ecological flow guarantee rates for major rivers and lakes ranked consistently at the forefront during the study period. In the future, Taian City should continuously enhance its water resources carrying capacity by strengthening rigid constraints, upgrading the industrial structure, and improving water resources management.更多还原