【摘要】 为探明塔里木河干流新其满河段的演变特性，依据该河段1993—2023年31 a的Landsat系列卫星影像资料和水文站的水沙数据，对河道断面的典型参数以及河道中心线和心滩面积进行对比分析。结果表明：河道主流南、北迁移速率分别达13.7、11.3 m/a,新其满大桥段中心线西移速率19 m/a,迫使桥梁右岸持续扩建。曲折系数从1.61变化至2.03,弯道1、弯道2及非限制性弯道的曲率半径平均变化率为30.5%,弯曲紧度指数波动于0.8～3.34,表明河段长度增长且弯曲加剧，汛期洪灾风险增大。河道断面宽度平均增长率和萎缩率分别为79%和18.8%,其宽度增加会造成主流迁移，岸线后退，破坏原有护岸工程及沿岸农田，而断面变窄则会加剧汛期洪水漫堤的风险。位于大寨水库东北方向500 m和2 km的心滩1和心滩2,因其面积增大而分别导致河道凹岸岸线后退400 m和300 m,加剧了凹冲凸淤的恶性循环，防洪成本进一步增大。总体上河道演变剧烈，建议通过河势调控与泥沙清淤治理，保证岸线、沿岸农田、村庄以及新其满大桥的安全。更多还原

【Abstract】 To investigate the evolution characteristics of the Xinqiman section in the main stream of the Tarim River, this study analyzed 31 years(1993-2023) of Landsat series satellite imagery and hydrological station data of water and sediment. A comparative analysis was conducted on the typical parameters of the river cross-section, the channel centerline and the area of the mid-channel bars. The results indicate that the rates of northward and southward migration of the main channel reached 13.7 m/a and 11.3 m/a, respectively. At the Xinqiman Bridge section, the centerline migrated westward at a rate of 19 m/a, necessitating continuous expansion of the right bank abutment. The sinuosity coefficient changed from 1.61 to 2.03. The average rate of change in the curvature radius for Bend 1, Bend 2, and the unrestricted meandering reaches was 30.5%. The bend tightness index fluctuated between 0.8 and 3.34, indicating that the river channel had lengthened and became more sinuous, thereby increasing flood risk during the flood season. The average rates of widening and narrowing for the channel cross-sections were 79% and 18.8%, respectively. Channel widening could lead to mainstream migration and bank retreat, damaging existing revetment structures and riparian farmland, while channel narrowing increased the risk of flood overtopping during high-flow periods. Mid-channel bar 1(500 m northeast of Dazhai Reservoir) and mid-channel bar 2(2 km northeast), due to their expansion, caused 400 m and 300 m of retreat at the concave banks, respectively, intensifying the cycle of “erosion at concave banks and deposition at convex banks” and further increasing flood control costs. Overall, the channel evolution is intense. It is recommended to implement channel regulation and sediment dredging to ensure the safety of the banks, adjacent farmland, villages and the Xinqiman Bridge.更多还原