【摘要】 随着我国人口流动格局的变化，劳动力回流现象愈发明显。流动人口生育水平介于城镇和农村居民之间，回流劳动力作为潜在的生育主体可以在一定程度上释放因流动而被抑制的生育潜力，深入考察回流劳动力的生育意愿变化以促进人口长期均衡发展十分必要。基于此，本文采用2014年、2016年及2018年中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）数据，考察劳动力回流对生育意愿的影响及其作用机制。研究首先以劳动力回流至户籍地所在县域为核心解释变量，运用泊松回归模型进行基准分析。进一步将劳动力回流范围扩展到回流至户籍地所在省份及低经济等级城市，以更全面地刻画回流行为对生育意愿的影响。研究发现劳动力回流明显提升了生育意愿，即使在更宽泛的回流定义下，这一结论依然成立，利用工具变量法、倾向得分匹配等方法证明该结果具有较强的稳健性。异质性分析发现家庭收入水平越高的劳动力回流更能促进其生育意愿的提升；以家庭为单位，夫妻双方都为具备代际支持的劳动力，其回流后生育意愿的提升效应更为显著；新生代流动人口秉承更为现代化的生育观念，其回流后的生育意愿提升并不显著，而拥有传统生育观念的劳动力回流后生育意愿会得到显著提升；劳动力回流对男性和女性的生育意愿均产生显著的正向影响，并显著增强了配偶之间生育意愿的一致性。此外，考虑不同生育阶段存在的差异性，劳动力回流更能促进一孩家庭的二孩生育意愿。机制分析发现劳动力回流通过家庭经济稳定效应、家庭社会保障效应和家庭代际支持效应三个路径提高生育意愿。劳动力回流提高了家庭生活满意度并降低了个体工作强度，增强了家庭经济稳定性；同时，劳动力回流提升了家庭社会保障的可及性；并通过扩大家庭同住规模进而提高家庭代际效应，多维度促进了回流劳动力生育意愿的提升。为进一步激发回流劳动力的生育潜力，建议大力推动流出地经济发展和产业升级，促进劳动力合理回流；完善生育保障和托育服务体系，倡导新型家庭与生育观念，构建覆盖经济、社会与文化多维度的婚育友好环境。更多还原

【Abstract】 With changes in China′s population mobility patterns,the phenomenon of labor return migration has become increasingly prominent. The fertility level of the floating population lies between that of urban and rural residents. As a potential group of childbearing agents,return migrants may partially release the fertility potential that has been suppressed by migration. Therefore,an in-depth examination of changes in fertility intentions among return migrants is crucial for promoting long-term balanced population development. Based on data from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey(CLDS)in 2014,2016,and 2018,this study investigates the impact of labor return migration on fertility intentions and explores the underlying mechanisms. Labor return migration to the county of household registration is used as the core explanatory variable,and a Poisson regression model is employed for baseline analysis. The definition of return migration is further extended to include return to the province of household registration and to cities with lower economic levels,allowing for a more comprehensive assessment of the effect of return migration on fertility intentions. The results show that labor return migration significantly increases fertility intentions,and this finding remains robust under broader definitions of return migration. Instrumental variable methods and propensity score matching are applied to confirm the robustness of the results. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that return migrants with higher household income experience a stronger increase in fertility intentions;at the household level,couples with intergenerational support exhibit a more pronounced fertility intention enhancement after returning;for the new generation of migrants,whose fertility attitudes tend to be more modern,the effect of return migration on fertility intentions is not significant,whereas migrants holding more traditional fertility values show a significant increase in fertility intentions after returning.Labor return migration has a significant positive effect on fertility intentions for both men and women and strengthens the consistency of fertility intentions between spouses. Moreover,considering differences across fertility stages,labor return migration more effectively promotes second-child fertility intentions among one-child families. Mechanism analysis indicates that labor return migration enhances fertility intentions through three channels:household economic stability,access to social security,and intergenerational support.Specifically,return migration increases household life satisfaction and reduces individual work intensity,thereby improving economic stability;it also enhances access to social security;and by expanding coresidence within households,it strengthens the capacity for grandparental childcare. These mechanisms jointly promote fertility intentions among return migrants from multiple dimensions. To further stimulate the fertility potential of return migrants,policies should promote economic development and industrial upgrading in labor-sending regions to facilitate rational labor return,improve fertility-related social protection and childcare service systems,and advocate new family and fertility norms to build a marriage-and childbearing-friendly environment encompassing economic,social,and cultural dimensions.更多还原