【摘要】 随着全球变化，尤其长江干流城市群所联系的经济带建设与长江开发等高强度人类活动影响愈来愈凸显，长江流域水循环正在发生变化。深入解析流域水文循环与水环境演变机制及其驱动因素，对长江经济带绿色高质量发展和长江大保护具有重要意义。1980年以来，在气候变化与高强度人类活动双重胁迫下，长江流域水循环发生了显著变化。水库群调控重塑了径流过程，城市化则导致地表水文过程与水安全需求发生显著改变。在洪旱极端灾害条件下，长江流域上下游水安全形成了“调控-响应-反馈”复杂互馈关系。在此背景下，系统综述了水库群调控效应、城市群水文效应及流域水循环演变规律三方面的研究成果。研究表明：(1)水库群削丰补枯作用明显，显著改变了天然径流情势，但在未来极端事件频率升高条件下，其削峰作用可能减弱。(2)城市化导致不透水面积增加，引起了城市热岛、雨岛效应加剧，沿江城市群外洪与内涝防控矛盾增加。(3)在气候变化和城市人口增长共同影响下，城市群水资源安全保障压力不断增加，未来保障压力因预估的水资源增加和人口减少而在一定程度上缓解。研究成果可为长江流域“人-水-城”绿色发展和长江大保护提供科技支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Changjiang River is the mother river of the Chinese nation and a lifeline for sustainable economic and social development in China.As the impacts of global change become increasingly evident, particularly intensive human activities such as rapid economic growth of economics, urbanization, water control infrastructures, etc.,the water cycle within the Changjiang River Basin is undergoing significant changes, which in turn affect the green development of the Changjiang River Economic Belt.A thorough analysis of the mechanisms and driving factors underlying the hydrological cycles and environmental evolution is of great importance for promoting green development and ecological protection of the Changjiang River.Since the 1980s, the water cycle of the Changjiang River Basin has changed significantly under the dual pressures of climate change and intensive human activities.Reservoir operations have reshaped runoff regimes.Urbanization has led to notable alterations in surface hydrological processes in urban areas and water security demands.Under extreme flood and drought conditions, a complex interactive relationship of “regulation-response-feedback” has emerged between the upstream and downstream water security coupling relationship.This paper systematically summarizes key findings in three areas, including the regulatory effects of mega reservoirs, the hydrological impacts of urban agglomerations, and the evolutionary changes of the basin-scale water cycle.The research shows that:(1) Reservoirs have played a notable role in redistributing water resources by regulating floodwaters and supplementing dry-season flows, significantly altering natural runoff regimes.However, their flood reduction capacity may diminish due to increased extreme event frequency under future climate change.(2) Urbanization has led to an expansion of impervious surfaces, intensifying urban heat island and rain island effects, and exacerbating conflicts between flood control from upstream reservoirs and stormwater pumping of the urban agglomerations along the main stream.(3) Under the combined influences of climate change and urban population growth, pressure on water resource security in urban agglomerations continues to rise, though future pressures are projected to ease due to projected water resource increases and population declines.This research provides scientific and technological support for the green development of the “human-water-city” system in the Changjiang River Basin and for the broader ecological protection of the Changjiang River.更多还原