【摘要】 [目的/意义]近年来，网络反转事件频发，网络媒介环境首当其冲，在舆论发酵过程中，质疑的声音越来越多。这种质疑不仅仅是情绪的宣泄，还包含对事件真实性的理性认知。文章旨在深入理解这种现象，并试图揭示反转事件频发对网络舆情演化的影响机制。[方法/过程]通过问卷调查和计算机仿真实验，对网络舆情中的个体、媒介环境、演化规律等各要素进行分析，然后根据分析结果将受众行为纳入舆情演化建模，并进行模拟仿真实验。[结果/结论]在反转事件频发的背景下，公众对网络媒介的信任程度显著降低，这种不信任又影响到个体的行为。其中，受众表达意愿得到了增强，而对点赞意愿和改变观点意愿无显著影响。通过模拟仿真实验发现，反转事件频发在一定程度上减缓了群体极化的过程，推动了公共舆论空间中理性成分的展现。研究结果对于理解反转事件在情感和理性上的双重效应，及其对舆情演化的影响具有重要意义，同时也为舆情引导和管理实践提供了参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Purpose/significance]Inrecent years, frequent reversal events have negatively impacted the online media environment, leading to an increasing number of skeptical voices during the evolution of public opinion.These doubts are no longer merely emotional outbursts but also involve rational understanding of the event’s authenticity. This study aims to gain a deeper understanding of this phenomenon and attempts to reveal the impact mechanism of frequent reversal events on the evolution of online public opinion. [Method/process]Through surveys and computer simulation experiments, the study analyzes various elements such as individuals, media environment, and evolution patterns in online public opinion,then according to the analysis result, by incorporating user behavior into the modeling of public opinion evolution, conducted the simulation experiments. [Result/conclusion]In the context of frequent reversals, public trust in online media significantly decreases. This lack of trust affects individual behavior, with users’ willingness to express opinions being heightened, while there is no significant impact on their willingness to like or change their viewpoints. Simulation experiments reveal that frequent reversals somewhat slow down the process of group polarization and promote the manifestation of rational components in the public opinion space. Research results are significant for understanding the dual impact of reversal events on both emotion and rationality, as well as their influence on public opinion evolution. Additionally, they provide reference for public opinion guidance and management.更多还原