【摘要】 提高粮食全要素生产率是实现农业高质量发展、保障国家粮食安全与促进乡村全面振兴的关键路径。本文基于2004—2022年县级数据，采用双向固定效应法分析粮食产业链产前、产中、产后三大环节的产业集群对粮食全要素生产率(TFP)的影响。研究结果发现，第一，产中和产后环节的集群发展能显著提升粮食TFP,且产后集群的促进作用更为突出；而产前集群的影响效应相对有限。第二，机制检验表明，三大环节产业集群的影响差异源于对TFP分解要素的作用分化，产前集群仅显著影响技术进步与规模效率，产中集群促进技术进步、技术效率及规模效率提升，产后集群则在技术进步、技术效率、规模效率与配置效率四个维度均呈现显著正向影响。第三，空间溢出效应显示，粮食产业集群主要提升本地TFP,对周边地区生产效率影响不显著。第四，异质性分析表明，这一促进作用在土地规模化水平和服务规模化水平较高的地区更为显著。从动态演进视角来看，乡村振兴战略的实施进一步强化了产后集群的TFP提升效应。本文为优化粮食产业空间布局、完善现代农业产业体系提供了新的经验证据，对推进粮食高质量发展具有重要政策启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 Enhancing grain total factor productivity(TFP)is critical for achieving high-quality agricultural development, ensuring national food security, and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization.Based on county-level data from 2004 to 2022,this study employs a two-way fixed effects model to analyze the impact of industrial clusters in the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments of grain industry chain on grain TFP.The findings reveal as follows: First, the development of midstream and downstream clusters significantly improves grain TFP,with downstream clusters exhibiting a more pronounced effect, while the impact of upstream clusters is relatively limited.Second, mechanism analysis indicates that the differential effects arise from their distinct influences on TFP decomposition components.Upstream clusters only significantly affect technological progress and scale efficiency; midstream clusters promote technological progress, technical efficiency, and scale efficiency; whereas downstream clusters demonstrate significant positive effects across all four dimensions—technological progress, technical efficiency, scale efficiency, and allocation efficiency.Third, spatial spillover effects show that grain industrial clusters primarily enhance local TFP,with no significant impact on neighboring regions’ productivity.Fourth, heterogeneity analysis suggests that these effects are more substantial in areas with higher land-scale and service-scale intensification.From a dynamic perspective, the implementation of the Rural Revitalization Strategy has further amplified the TFP-enhancing effect of downstream clusters.This study provides new empirical evidence for optimizing the spatial layout of grain industry and improving modern agricultural industrial systems, offering important policy implications for advancing high-quality grain development.更多还原