【摘要】 针对传统船用大功率发动机可靠性研究数据样本不足、试验代价高的问题，基于机理模型和数据统计融合的方法建立船用发动机可靠性模型，由整机性能及衰退模型、动力学模型、部件损伤模型和系统可靠性指标分析模型组成，整机性能及衰退模型和动力学模型为部件损伤模型提供边界条件，系统可靠性指标分析模型根据部件损伤参数和先验统计数据分析整机的可靠性．其中，部件损伤模型考虑了关键摩擦副和主要受力件的磨损和疲劳损伤；系统可靠性指标分析模型采用蒙特卡洛算法和拉丁超立方抽样对机理模型计算的损伤参数进行统计分析和可靠度计算．对某船用中速柴油机的可靠性分析表明，可靠度为0.9时柴油机的寿命为11 650 h．该整机可靠性指标分析方法结合损伤机理和先验统计数据，考虑了各部件损伤的相关性，与统计数据融合后得到了船用中速柴油机的平均无故障时间(MTBF).更多还原

【Abstract】 The traditional method of reliability research on high-power marine engines has the problems of insufficient data samples and high cost of testing. To solve these problems,a reliability model for marine engines was established based on the fusion of mechanistic models and data statistics. The reliability model consisted of the whole engine performance degradation model,the dynamics model,the component damage model and the system reliability index analysis model. The whole engine performance degradation model and the dynamics model provided boundary conditions for the component damage model. The system reliability index analysis model was used to analyze the reliability of the whole engine according to the component damage parameters and prior statistical data. The component damage model considered the wear and fatigue damage of key friction pairs and main stress components. The system reliability index analysis model used Monte Carlo method and Latin hypercube sampling for statistical analysis and reliability calculation of the damage parameters calculated by the mechanistic model. The reliability analysis of a medium-speed marine diesel engine shows that the service life of the diesel engine is 11 650 h when the reliability is 0.9. The reliability analysis method combines the damage mechanism and prior statistical data,and considers the damage correlation of each components. When fused with statistical data,the mean time between failures(MTBF) of the medium-speed marine diesel engine is obtained.更多还原