【摘要】 现有文献普遍证实了市场型环境政策对本地绿色低碳发展的促进作用，但关于其对邻地的空间外溢性尚未形成统一结论。文章基于碳排放权交易试点政策实施的准自然实验，结合2003—2021年284个地级市面板数据，采用EBM-GML模型测算绿色全要素生产率，运用空间双重差分模型实证检验了试点政策对“本地-邻地”绿色全要素生产率的影响及其机制。结果表明，试点政策在提升本地绿色全要素生产率的同时，对邻近试点地区和非试点地区均产生了负向空间溢出效应，且邻近试点地区受到的影响更为显著，但该负向空间溢出效应仅存在于200千米内，超出200千米后转为正向效应。机制检验显示，在200千米内，试点政策通过阻碍邻地绿色研发和推动邻地承接污染产业转移抑制了邻地绿色全要素生产率的增长；而在200千米外，通过推动邻地绿色研发提升了邻地绿色全要素生产率，污染产业就近转移效应未得到验证。异质性分析表明，中国核证自愿减排市场正在发挥创新激励效应，且高碳市场活跃度地区的绿色全要素生产率提升效应弱于低活跃度地区。此外，地区绿色金融发展程度越高、政府环境治理能力越强，试点政策对本地绿色全要素生产率的提升效应越明显，对邻地绿色全要素生产率的抑制作用越突出。文章创新性地区分并量化了绿色研发效应和污染就近转移效应，系统剖析了碳排放权交易试点政策的空间溢出效应与作用机制；研究发现对于优化中国碳排放权交易市场、构建绿色低碳高质量发展空间格局具有重要的政策参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Existing literature has universally confirmed the promoting effect of market-based environmental policies on local green and low-carbon development. However, there is still no consensus on their spatial spillover effects of neighboring regions. Based on the quasi-natural experiment of the Carbon Emission Trading Scheme(ETS), combined with the panel data of 284 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2021, this paper uses the EBM-GML model to measure the Green Total Factor Productivity(GTFP). It applies the spatial difference-in-differences model to test the impact of the pilot policy on the GTFP of “local-neighboring regions” and its mechanism. The study finds that while the pilot policy improves the local GTFP, it has a negative spatial spillover effect on neighboring pilot and non-pilot regions. The impact on neighboring pilot regions is more significant. However, this negative spatial spillover effect only exists within 200 kilometers and turns into a positive effect beyond 200 kilometers. The mechanism test shows that within 200 kilometers, the pilot policy inhibits the growth of GTFP in neighboring regions by impeding local green R&D and promoting the transfer of polluting industries to the neighboring areas. Beyond 200 kilometers, it improves GTFP in neighboring regions by promoting local green R&D, and the effect of nearby transfer of polluting industries is not verified. The heterogeneous analysis indicates that the Chinese Certified Emission Reduction(CCER) market is exerting its due innovation incentive effect. Moreover, in regions with higher carbon market activity, the effect on improving GTFP is weaker than that in regions with lower activity. Additionally, the higher the level of regional green finance development and the stronger the government’s environmental governance capacity, the more obvious the promoting effect of the pilot policy on local GTFP, and the more prominent the restraining effect on the growth of GTFP in neighboring regions. This paper innovatively distinguishes and tests the green R&D effect and the nearby transfer effect of pollution, and systematically analyzes the spatial spillover effect and mechanism of the ETS. The findings have important policy reference value for optimizing China’s carbon emission trading market and constructing a spatial pattern of high-quality green and low-carbon development.更多还原