【摘要】 为探究心理因素驱动下矿工安全偏离行为从隐性积累到显性爆发的演化规律及干预重点,采用结构方程模型与系统动力学相结合(SEM-SD)的方法开展行为仿真研究。首先,基于拓展计划行为理论整合行为态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制、风险倾向、行为意向和安全偏离行为等6个变量构建理论模型并提出变量间的影响关系假设;随后,通过问卷调查收集277名一线矿工数据,建立结构方程模型对理论假设进行实证检验;最后,基于实证识别的变量关系网络和估计参数构建系统动力学模型进行动态仿真。仿真结果显示:首先,在无干预的条件下,矿工安全偏离行为随时间发展呈现出阶段性演化特征,3个月内行为水平相对稳定,3个月后开始快速上升,呈现出“前期平稳,后期激增”的态势;其次,敏感性分析表明,各驱动因素对安全偏离行为的影响强度存在差异,按强度排序为行为意向>风险倾向>主观规范>知觉行为控制>行为态度;最后,对比直接与间接驱动因素的作用效果发现,相比于行为意向对安全偏离行为的直接驱动作用,行为态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制和风险倾向等间接驱动因素的组合对安全偏离行为的长期干预效果更为显著。研究成果通过揭示矿工安全偏离行为演化规律与干预重点,为煤矿安全管理制定分阶段、精准化的动态干预策略提供依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 To explore the evolution law and intervention focus of miners’ safety deviant behavior from implicit accumulation to explicit outbreak driven by psychological factors, a behavioral simulation study was conducted by combining the structural equation model with system dynamics(SEM-SD). Firstly, a theoretical model was constructed based on the extended theory of planned behavior, integrating six variables including behavioral attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, risk propensity, behavioral intention and safety deviant behavior, and the influence relationship hypotheses among the variables were proposed. Then, data from 277 front-line miners were collected through questionnaire surveys, and a structural equation model was established to empirically test the theoretical hypotheses. Finally, a system dynamics model was constructed based on the empirically identified variable relationship network and estimated parameters for dynamic simulation. The simulation results show that: firstly, under the condition of no intervention, the miners’ safety deviant behavior shows a phased evolution characteristic over time. The level of safety deviant behavior is relatively stable within three months and begins to rise rapidly after three months, presenting a trend of “stable in the early stage and sudden increase in the later stage”. Secondly, the sensitivity analysis shows that the influence intensity of each driving factor on safety deviant behavior is different, in the order of behavioral intention > risk propensity > subjective norm > perceived behavioral control > behavioral attitude. Finally, by comparing the effect of direct and indirect driving factors, it is found that the combination of indirect driving factors such as behavioral attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control and risk propensity has a more significant long-term intervention effect on safety deviant behavior than the direct driving effect of behavioral intention. This study result reveals the evolution law and intervention focus of safety deviant behavior, aiming to provide a certain basis for formulating phased and precise dynamic intervention strategies in coal mine safety management.更多还原