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国际游客统计方法的比较和统计口径的选择

A Comparative Analysis of International Tourists Statistics Methods and Data Coverage

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【作者】 曲鸣亚保继刚

【Author】 QU Mingya;BAO Jigang;School of Tourism Management,Sun Yat-sen University;Center for Tourism Planning and Research,Sun Yat-sen University;

【通讯作者】 保继刚;

【机构】 中山大学旅游学院中山大学旅游发展与规划研究中心

【摘要】 国际游客数据是计算旅游需求及旅游影响的重要参考指标。尽管现有全球数据库已能提供各国的国际游客数据,但深究这些数据可以发现,同一国家不同口径的国际游客数量差异可达10倍。现有研究较少探讨国际游客数据不同统计口径之间的可比性,也未能为宏观比较研究中的统计口径选择提供明确的原则与依据。鉴于此,文章基于联合国旅游组织的统计建议和标准,对比了14个主要的国际旅游目的地国家的入境游客统计方式,探讨了不同统计口径国际游客数据的收集方法和覆盖范围,提供了国际游客数据统计口径的选择原则,旨在为构建更加可靠与可比的国际旅游数据库提供参考,并对现有的国际游客统计实践提供建议。

【Abstract】 International tourist data are fundamental for assessing tourism demand and its broader impact. However, significant discrepancies exist across global databases, with reported figures for the same country varying by as much as tenfold. This variation stems from the diverse statistical methods and standards applied. Existing research has not adequately addressed the comparability of these different data series, nor has it established clear principles for data selection in macro-level comparative studies. This often leads to an uncritical default to “border-data priority”, which can introduce substantial inaccuracies into cross-national analysis. To address this gap, this paper develops a framework to enhance the comparability of international tourist statistics. The study draws on a comparative analysis of the statistical methods in 14 major tourist destination countries, supplemented by a broader methodological review covering 105 countries. The analysis reveals several key findings. First, the choice of statistical methods is contingent on national institutional settings, technical capacities, and policy aims. Countries in Asia, North America, and Oceania commonly employ border-centric systems, whereas European nations typically rely on accommodation-based statistics. No single approach is universally superior. Second, border-based data, often regarded as a comprehensive census, are frequently extrapolated from sample surveys, challenging the common perception of their inherent superiority. Third, this study proposes four principles for selecting international tourist data for comparative research: 1) prioritize the use of overnight visitors(T) and country of residence(R); 2) align statistical methods with the degree of border fluidity, using TF/VF for countries with strict border controls and TCE/THS for those with open borders; 3) in cases of limited availability, use the sole caliber provided while acknowledging its limitations; and 4) cross-validate data with authoritative international sources and market reports. This paper establishes a set of criteria for choosing data sources on international tourists, and culminates in the compilation of a dataset on Chinese outbound tourist for 105 countries/regions from 2005 to 2018. This study makes two primary contributions. First, it advances the understanding of data comparability in tourism research by offering clear criteria for caliber selection and encouraging researchers to engage in “data archaeology” to uncover the context behind the statistics. Second, it reveals the political economy of tourism statistics, demonstrating how data collection is intertwined with governance structures and regional integration. This paper thus provides a new institutional perspective for interpreting global tourism flows and offers actionable recommendations for improving China’s international tourism statistical practices, including opportunities for fostering international collaboration and the exploring new data sources such as mobile positioning data.

  • 【分类号】F591
  • 【下载频次】40
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