【摘要】 随着经济的不断增长，人们对于健康绿色农产品的需求也在不断增加，农产品物流需求预测对于保障区域农产品供应链的稳定性和效率至关重要。文章旨在通过分析浙江省近40年的农产品产量和产值数据，利用ARIMA模型预测未来10年的产量和产值，并通过计算物流运输量、冷链物流需求、物流服务价值等指标，分析浙江省农产品未来的物流需求，对于提升浙江省农产品物流系统规模以及促进浙江省冷链物流发展具有重要的参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the continuous growth of the economy, people’s demand for healthy and green agricultural products is also increasing. The prediction of the logistics demand for agricultural products is crucial for ensuring the stability and efficiency of the regional agricultural product supply chain. This research aims to analyze the production volume and output value data of agricultural products in Zhejiang Province over the past 40 years, use the ARIMA model to predict the production volume and output value in the next 10 years, and analyze the future logistics demand for agricultural products in Zhejiang Province by calculating indicators such as logistics transportation volume, cold chain logistics demand, and logistics service value. It has important reference significance for enhancing the scale of the agricultural product logistics system in Zhejiang Province and promoting the development of the cold chain logistics in Zhejiang Province.更多还原