【摘要】 为优化吉林西部国土空间开发格局，推动区域可持续发展，基于吉林西部2000、2010、2020年3期土地利用数据，运用土地利用转移矩阵、动态度模型、斑块级土地利用模拟模型（patch-generating land use simulation, PLUS）,分析区域“三生空间”演变特征，模拟自然发展、粮食优先、生态优先以及均衡发展4种情景的土地利用格局，揭示不同政策导向下的土地利用格局演变趋势，并在此基础上结合多目标优化（multi-objective optimization problem, MOP）模型提出可持续发展情景下的优化格局。结果表明：2000—2020年期间吉林西部土地利用转型呈现生产和生活空间扩张、生态空间减少的特征。自然发展情景下生产空间与生态空间的冲突加剧，粮食优先情景加剧了生态空间的收缩，而生态优先与均衡发展情景虽能缓解生态压力，但生态空间的扩张主要来自未利用地，生产空间与生态空间的矛盾并未缓解。可持续发展情景在未利用地规模不变的条件下，吉林西部国土空间利用经济效益为8.21×10¹²元，生态效益为3.70×10¹⁰元。其生产空间和生活空间分别扩张1 048.14、212.24 km²,生态空间的缩减问题得到缓解，增长了435.90 km²,长期维持此发展模式可有效优化吉林西部空间格局、调节区域发展失衡，该情景可为吉林西部未来可持续发展提供参考。建议未来进一步增强区域发展的可持续性，严格管控耕地无序扩张，科学调控土地利用转换方向与强度，进而实现吉林西部“三生空间”的动态平衡。更多还原

【Abstract】 To optimize the territorial spatial development pattern and promote regional sustainable development in Western Jilin Province, Basing on three phases of land use data（2000, 2010, and 2020） in Western Jilin Province, land use transfer matrix, dynamic degree model, and PLUS（patch-generating land use simulation） model were employed to analyze the evolution characteristics of regional “production-living-ecological Space”, simulate land use patterns under four scenarios, natural development, grain priority, ecological priority, and balanced development, and reveal the evolution trends of land use patterns under different policy orientations. On this basis, combined with MOP（multi-objective optimization problem） model, an optimized pattern under sustainable development scenario was proposed. The results show that the land use transformation in Western Jilin Province from 2000 to 2020 is characterized by the expansion of production and living spaces and the reduction of ecological space. Under the natural development scenario, the conflict between production space and ecological space intensifies; the grain priority scenario exacerbates the contraction of ecological space; while the ecological priority and balanced development scenarios can alleviate ecological pressure, the expansion of ecological space mainly comes from unused land, and the contradiction between production space and ecological space is not alleviated. Under the sustainable development scenario with the scale of unused land unchanged, the economic benefit of territorial space utilization in Western Jilin Province is ￥8.21×10¹², and the ecological benefit is ￥3.70×10¹⁰. The production space and living space expand by 1048.14 km² and 212.24 km² respectively, and the reduction of ecological space is alleviated with an increase of 435.90 km². Maintaining this development model in the long term can effectively optimize the spatial pattern of Western Jilin Province and adjust regional development imbalance, which can provide reference for the future sustainable development of Western Jilin Province. It’s suggested that in the future, efforts should be made to further enhance the sustainability of regional development, strictly control the unordered expansion of cultivated land, and scientifically regulate the direction and intensity of land use conversion, so as to realize the dynamic balance of “production-living-ecological space” in western Jilin Province.更多还原