【摘要】 针对煤矿水害风险评价中风险等级判定主观性强、指标兼具模糊性与随机性的问题，提出了一种基于组合赋权二维灰云模型的煤矿水害风险评价方法。依据防治水规范并结合现场实际，构建了包含5个一级指标、22个二级指标的评价指标体系；利用序关系分析（rank correlation analysis,G1）法与改进的基于指标相关性的指标权重确定（criteria importance through intercriteria correlation,CRITIC）法，并引入博弈论，获得了各指标的组合权重；进一步建立风险发生概率-事故后果严重程度（risk occurrence probability-accident consequence severity,P-S，简称概率-后果）二维灰云模型，通过蒙特卡洛仿真得到各指标对4个风险等级的隶属度和乘法综合风险值，在P-S平面绘制风险云图，并结合5×5风险矩阵完成风险等级判定。乌海市某煤矿实例分析结果表明：该煤矿水害综合风险判定为一般风险（Ⅲ级），整体可控但仍存在一定较高风险（Ⅱ级）情景；评价结果与现场实际及工程认知基本一致，表明该风险评价方法具有一定的可行性。该研究可为煤矿水害风险评价与管控提供方法参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 To address the strong subjectivity in determining risk grades and the coexistence of fuzziness and randomness in evaluation indices for coal mine water hazard risk assessment, a coal mine water hazard risk assessment method based on combined weighting and a two-dimensional grey cloud model is proposed. According to water control regulations and site-specific conditions, an evaluation index system consisting of 5 primary indicators and 22 secondary indicators is established. The G1 method and an improved criteria importance through intercriteria correlation(CRITIC) method are employed, and game theory is introduced to obtain the combined weights of the indicators. Furthermore, a two-dimensional grey cloud model of risk occurrence probability and accident consequence severity(P-S,hereinafter referred to as probability-severity) is developed. Through Monte Carlo simulation, the membership degrees of each indicator to four risk grades and the multiplicative comprehensive risk values are obtained; risk cloud maps are plotted in the P-S plane, and risk grades are determined using a 5×5 risk matrix. A case study of a coal mine in Wuhai City shows that the overall water hazard risk is classified as general risk(grade Ⅲ), indicating that the risk is generally controllable while certain grade Ⅱ high-risk scenarios still exist. The evaluation results are basically consistent with site conditions and engineering understanding, demonstrating that the proposed risk assessment method has certain feasibility.更多还原