【摘要】 现有文献多从静态视角考察银行关联对企业风险的即期影响。本文则基于动态视角，探究信贷周期不同阶段的银行关联对企业债务违约风险的影响。具体地，本文将银行关联与信贷周期的匹配关系按其匹配性优劣程度划分为四种类型，发现银行关联与信贷周期的匹配性越差，企业在信贷紧缩后的债务违约风险越高。机制分析表明，匹配性较差的企业在信贷扩张期的过度投资和信贷紧缩期的贷款下滑更为严重，进而导致其在信贷紧缩期的债务违约风险加剧。本文揭示了银行关联与信贷周期的不同匹配关系对债务违约风险的差异化作用，丰富和拓展了银行关联经济后果方面的研究，为企业合理利用银行关联提供了实践参考，亦为监管部门有效管控债务违约风险提供了有益启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 Prior literature has examined the contemporaneous effects of bank connections on corporate risk from a static perspective, with relatively few studies adopting a dynamic lens. This study introduces a dynamic framework to examine how the matching type between firms’ bank connections and the credit environment affects debt default risk over the course of the credit cycle. We classify the alignment between bank connections and credit conditions into four matching types and find that the greater the mismatch, the higher the likelihood of debt default during credit crunch. Mechanism analysis shows that firms with more mismatched bank connections engage in greater overinvestment during credit boom and experience more severe credit contractions during credit crunch, both of which amplify default risk in downturns. These findings illuminate the heterogeneous and time-varying role of bank connections across the credit cycle, enrich the literature on the long-term economic consequences of bank connections, and offer practical guidance to firms on the effective use of bank connections as well as valuable insights for regulators in managing default risk.更多还原