【摘要】 当全球产业链面临断链并伴随产生布局的就地化、属地化重构风险时，政府可否通过靶向设计协调新型基础设施布局，引导各地夯实优化产业链建设的基础，实现制造业效率系统变革。本文运用动态能力理论中“危机修复—机会捕捉”双层能力架构，指出提升产业链韧性的关键是实现恢复效应到增长效应的动态优化。据此，创新性地从产业链韧性纵向结构优化视角，考察了新型基础设施建设（简称“新基建”）对制造业全要素生产率的影响及其隐蕴的韧性传导机制。研究发现，新基建显著提升制造业全要素生产率，且区别于传统基建，短期内新基建的生产率提升效应未呈现结构性钝化趋势。机制上，新基建形成以效率协同和技术互补为内在属性的产业链韧性恢复效应机制、以生产与需求双侧驱动为典型特征的产业链韧性增长效应机制，提升制造业全要素生产率。异质性分析显示，在地区、产业和要素三维差异下，新基建对制造业全要素生产率呈现出从非战略腹地—广义战略腹地—狭义战略腹地的逐步增强促进效应，且在高制造业服务业协同集聚与科技金融要素丰裕地区，这一效应更显著。本研究拓展了产业链韧性研究视角，为中国经济发展高质量发展背景下，统筹协调新型基础设施布局、优化产业链建设提供了实践启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 For a long time, bottlenecks at the industrial chain level have been a fundamental structural issue hindering the transformation of China’s industrial growth drivers and the sustained improvement of total factor productivity(TFP). Against this backdrop, there is growing attention on whether the development of new infrastructure, as a vital means of production for new quality productive forces, can create favorable conditions for optimizing industrial chain development and accelerating the improvement of TFP in manufacturing through technological empowerment, thereby guiding the transformation of China’s economic growth drivers and supporting the construction of a modern industrial system.This paper employs a dual-layer capability framework of “crisis recovery-opportunity capture” under the dynamic capabilities theory. Based on balanced panel data of Chinese cities from 2008 to 2022, this paper uses the Hicks-Moorsteen index and the entropy method to measure the TFP of the manufacturing sector and the level of new infrastructure development in Chinese cities, respectively. From the perspective of optimizing the longitudinal structure of industrial chain resilience, this paper examines the impact of new infrastructure on manufacturing TFP and its transmission mechanisms. This paper finds that:(1) New infrastructure significantly boosts manufacturing TFP, and unlike traditional infrastructure, the productivity-enhancing effect of new infrastructure does not show signs of weakening in the short term.(2) Mechanism identification indicates that new infrastructure promotes manufacturing TFP growth through recovery and growth effects during the vertical optimization of industrial chain resilience.(3) The productivity-enhancing effect of new infrastructure exhibits distinct boundaries related to strategic positioning, industrial integration, and locational resources. Specifically, the positive impact of new infrastructure on manufacturing TFP is more pronounced in regions characterized by a narrow strategic hinterland, high manufacturing-service co-agglomeration, and abundant sci-tech financial resources.The potential marginal contributions of this paper are as follows. Firstly, based on a dual-layer capability framework of “crisis recovery–opportunity capture”, this paper analyzes the vertical structure and optimization process of industrial chain resilience. It specifically defines this process from two perspectives—recovery effects and growth effects—thereby providing a theoretical foundation for exploring the coupling logic among new infrastructure, industrial chain resilience, and manufacturing TFP. Secondly, from the perspective of the vertical optimization of industrial chain resilience, this paper dissects the transmission mechanism through which new infrastructure drives manufacturing TFP growth. This includes the resilience recovery effect, characterized by efficiency synergy and technological complementarity, and the resilience growth effect, typified by dual-sided drivers of production and demand, thereby offering a new theoretical interpretation of the productivity-enhancing effects of new infrastructure. Thirdly, by employing a threshold effect model, this paper examines the differences in the persistence of productivity growth effects between new and traditional infrastructure, demonstrating that the long-term productivity-enhancing effects of new infrastructure are persistent. This paper broadens the perspective on industrial chain resilience research and offers theoretical and practical insights for coordinating the layout of new infrastructure and optimizing industrial chain development within the context of China’s high-quality economic transformation.更多还原