【摘要】 构建结构模型并采用贝叶斯方法模拟了不同结构性货币政策工具的有效性，研究发现结构性货币政策对系统性金融风险具有“异质性”调控效应：央行激励资金工具和再贷款资金工具分别可以从“量”和“价”两个方面刺激商业银行对普惠小微企业的融资支持力度，进而缓释不确定性风险冲击；再贷款资金工具对金融风险的调控效果较强，且具有相对长期效应；激励资金工具对金融风险的调控效果较弱，且具有相对短期效应；央行结构性货币政策对金融机构风险指标中流动性风险、信用风险、利率风险的缓释效应依次递减，对金融市场风险指标中资本资产价格风险、金融深化率风险、杠杆率风险的缓释效应依次递减。据此，应扩大支小支农再贷款额度和覆盖面、优化科技创新与技术改造再贷款、设立能源与大宗商品保供专项再贷款、强化保障性领域再贷款、完善再贷款激励与风险补偿机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper constructs a dynamic theoretical model of structural monetary policy, bank risk sharing and financial accelerator mechanism with China characteristics, and uses Bayesian estimation for numerical simulation. It is found that structural monetary policy has a “heterogeneous” regulatory effect on systemic financial risks. First, the central bank’s incentive fund tools and refinancing fund tools can stimulate commercial banks’ financing support for small and micro enterprises from the aspects of “quantity” and “price” respectively, thus alleviating the impact of uncertain risks. Second, refinancing instruments have a strong regulatory effect on financial risks and have a relatively long-term effect; Incentive fund instruments have a weak regulatory effect on financial risks and have a relatively shortterm effect. Third, the slow-release effect of the central bank’s structural monetary policy on the risk indicators of financial institutions, namely liquidity risk, credit risk and interest rate risk, decreases in turn; while the slow-release effect on the risk indicators of financial markets, namely capital asset price risk, financial deepening rate risk and leverage ratio risk, decreases in turn. Finally, some suggestions are put forward from five aspects: re-lending to support agriculture, re-lending to scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, re-lending to set up special loans for energy and commodity supply, re-lending to strengthen the security sector, and improving the incentive and risk compensation mechanism for re-lending.更多还原