【摘要】 供应链碳排放转移需要前后向联系的实物流动，这种功能连接是规制企业将碳排放责任向上游或下游转移的触发条件。本文围绕上市公司构建三级供应链数据，以低碳城市试点为准自然实验，运用交错双重差分法，深入探究生态环境政策对规制企业及上下游、供应链总体碳排放的影响。研究发现，低碳城市试点政策通过促进绿色创新显著抑制了规制企业碳排放。通过甄别供应连接及更具分工深化特性的功能连接，研究发现，低碳城市试点政策对具备供应连接的上下游企业碳排放没有显著影响，却显著扩大了具备功能连接的上下游企业碳排放。进一步构建了反映功能连接强度的功能匹配度指标，实证发现，功能匹配度越高，供应链碳排放转移的效应越强，且这一效应是通过产出调整机制发挥作用的。此外，低碳城市试点政策不仅没有冲击供应链韧性，还协同推进了试点城市的降碳减污。本文将生态环境政策的效应检验拓展到供应链，甄别了实施供应链碳排放转移的功能连接，为健全生态文明制度体系、发挥完整产业体系优势打造绿色低碳供应链提供了经验证据和实践启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 Supply-chain carbon transfer depends on the physical flows inherent in both forward and backward linkages,with such functional link serving as the precondition for upstream or downstream shifts in emission responsibilities imposed on regulated firms. Addressing the complexities of carbon leakage and responsibility allocation,this paper focuses explicitly on listed companies to construct a comprehensive three-tier supply-chain network dataset. By leveraging the Low-Carbon City Pilot(LCCP) policy as a quasi-natural experiment and rigorously employing a staggered difference-indifferences(SDID) approach,this paper systematically investigates the impact of environmental regulation on carbon emissions.The analysis extends beyond the immediate regulated firms to encompass their upstream and downstream partners,ultimately evaluating the aggregate effect on the supply chain as a whole.The empirical findings demonstrate that the LCCP policy significantly reduces the carbon emissions of regulated firms.This decarbonization effect is primarily driven by the promotion of green innovation,but is not accompanied by production adjustment.However,the impact on the broader supply chain is heterogeneous and depends critically on the nature of the link. By rigorously distinguishing between supply link and functional link,the results reveal a nuanced reality:while the pilot policy does not significantly affect the carbon emissions of upstream or downstream firms connected merely through the supply link,it significantly increases the emissions of those partners interconnected through the functional link.Furthermore,utilizing a functional fit index to capture the intensity of the functional link,the empirical analysis uncovers a significant relationship:a higher functional fit index strengthens the carbon transfer effect along the supply chain.This mechanism operates predominantly through production adjustment,where regulated firms alter their procurement or output strategies in response to policy pressure,thereby shifting the emission burden to tightly integrated partners.Importantly,this paper finds that this policy pilot does not compromise supply-chain resilience,and conversely,it contributes synergistically to both decarbonization and pollution reduction objectives within the pilot cities. By extending the evaluation framework of environmental policy effects from the firm level to the supplychain level and identifying the functional link as the key channel enabling carbon emission transfer,this paper provides robust empirical evidence and practical insights. These findings are instrumental for policymakers aiming to optimize environmental regulations and leverage the structural advantages of a complete industrial system to accelerate the development of green and low-carbon supply chains.更多还原