【摘要】 文章基于2013—2023年山东省三大经济圈数据，在运用熵权—TOPSIS法测度新质生产力与经济高质量发展水平的基础上，借助耦合协调模型、标准差椭圆与重心迁移模型、PVAR模型解析了两系统的时空耦合特征及其互动效应。结果表明：(1)研究期内山东省新质生产力与经济高质量发展水平总体呈上升趋势，空间格局呈现明显的“东高西低”区域分异，三大经济圈形成“胶东引领、省会稳健、鲁南追赶”的阶梯型发展格局；新质生产力增速呈现“前期快、后期缓”特征，经济高质量发展则持续稳步提升。(2)时序上，山东省耦合协调度实现由“失调衰退类”向“过渡类”的跨越，高效能维度提升最快，系统结构持续优化；空间上，耦合协调重心向西南迁移、范围扩张、主轴呈“西北—东南”向偏斜，区域发展趋向多中心网络化格局。(3)山东省新质生产力与经济高质量发展两系统存在显著动态互动与反向调节效应，总体表现为“短期波动，长期协同”；经济高质量发展短期内抑制新质生产力提升但长期积极效应增强，新质生产力推动作用短暂且持续支撑力有限，系统间呈“协调—竞争”并存关系。更多还原

【Abstract】 The development of new quality productive forces constitutes an inherent requirement and a critical leverage point for promoting the high-quality economic development. Based on the data from the three major economic circles of Shandong Province from 2013 to 2023, this study employs the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method to evaluate the new quality productive forces and the level of high-quality economic development, and investigates their spatiotemporal coupling characteristics and interaction effects by the means of the coupling coordination model, the standard deviational ellipse, the gravity center migration model and the panel vector autoregression(PVAR) model. The results indicate that: 1) During the study period, both the new quality productive forces and the high-quality economic development exhibited an overall upward trend, with a distinct spatial differentiation pattern, which is higher in the east of Shandong and lower in the west of Shandong. Three economic circles have formed a hierarchical development structure, Jiaodong economic circle plays a leading role, central Shandong economic circle plays a stabilizing role, and southern Shandong economic circle plays a catching-up role. While the growth rate of new quality productive forces accelerated rapidly in the early stage and slowed thereafter, the high-quality economic development maintained steady and continuous growth. 2) In terms of temporal evolution, Shandong Province achieved a transition in coupling coordination from the "dysregulated and declining" stage to the "transitional" stage, with the high-efficiency dimension improving most rapidly and the overall system structure becoming increasingly optimized. Spatially, the gravity center of coupling coordination shifted southwestward, accompanied by an expanding spatial scope and a northwest–southeast dominant orientation, indicating a gradual evolution toward a multi-centered and networked regional development pattern. 3) Significant dynamic interactions and bidirectional adjustment effects exist between the two systems, exhibiting a pattern of "short-term fluctuations but long-term synergy". High-quality economic development initially suppresses the enhancement of new quality productive forces in the short term, but it exerts an increasingly positive influence over the long run. The driving effect of new quality productive forces is immediate, yet it lacks sustained strength. Overall, the relationship between the two systems can be characterized as a coexistence of "coordination and competition".更多还原