【摘要】 针对智能船舶航行风险评价过程中普遍存在模糊性与随机性等问题，本文创新性地引入了基于博弈论组合赋权的可拓云模型，用于系统性地评价智能船舶的航行风险。首先，采用双重标准风险过滤方法筛选风险指标因素，构建智能船舶航行风险指标体系；其次，结合层次分析法、熵权法以及变异系数法，计算各个风险指标的权重，并基于博弈论模型整合各方法的结果确定综合权重；最后，基于组合赋权—可拓云模型计算综合关联度，得出智能船舶的航行风险等级，实现对智能船舶航行风险的评价。本文通过不同时刻的航行数据验证了该组合模型对智能船舶航行风险的系统性与适用性，该研究结果可为海事监管部门及船舶运营企业提供理论依据，使其在航行风险管理与安全流程优化方面制定更加有效的策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 Considering the prevalent issues of fuzziness and randomness encountered during the investigation of navigation risks associated with intelligent vessels, this study innovatively proposes an extended cloud model based on game theory integrated weighting to systematically evaluate these risks. Initially, a dual-criteria risk filtering approach is employed to select relevant risk indicators, thereby constructing a comprehensive risk assessment index system for intelligent vessels.Subsequently, the weights of individual risk indicators are calculated through a combination of the analytic hierarchy process(AHP), entropy weighting method, and coefficient of variation method. These results are then integrated using a game theory model to derive comprehensive weights. Finally, the comprehensive correlation degree is calculated based on the combined weighting-extended cloud model, thus establishing the navigation risk level for intelligent vessels and achieving a systematic evaluation of their navigation risks. The effectiveness and applicability of the proposed combined model are validated using navigational data collected over different moment. The findings of this study provide a theoretical foundation for maritime regulatory authorities and vessel operating enterprises, enabling them to formulate more effective strategies regarding navigation risk management and optimization of safety procedures.更多还原