【摘要】 目的 分析2005―2023年云南省保山市流行性腮腺炎的流行病学特征，探测聚集区域，为制定防控措施提供科学依据。方法 收集2005―2023年保山市75个街道(乡镇)的流行性腮腺炎报告数据，采用描述性流行病学方法分析三间分布特征，采用全局莫兰指数(Moran′s I)度量空间自相关性，通过6种局部空间自相关分析确定聚集区。采用前瞻性时空聚集性分析进行预测。结果 2005―2023年保山市报告流行性腮腺炎病例7 602例，年均发病率为15.26/10万。男、女比为1.45∶1.00,6～12岁为高发年龄段，学生和儿童为高发人群类别，10月―次年1月和5―6月为流行季节。全局空间自相关分析结果显示，2005―2023年保山市流行性腮腺炎发病率具有空间自相关性(Moran′s I=0.13,Z=1.98,P=0.02),聚集区主要在保山市西部。前瞻性时空聚集性分析探测到丙麻乡再现集群时间间隔为11年(RR=2.16,LLR=9.03,P=0.02)。结论 2005―2023年保山市流行性腮腺炎的高危人群为男性、6～12岁儿童和学生，呈10月―次年1月和5―6月双峰流行，西部地区为主要聚集区。应加强高风险人群的监测，特别是在高发季节，聚集区应强化预防措施，防范疫情暴发风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze epidemiological characteristics of epidemic parotitis in Baoshan, Yunnan from 2005 to 2023, identify clustered regions, and provide scientific evidence for formulating prevention and control measures. Methods Epidemic parotitis surveillance data from 75 streets(townships) in Baoshan from 2005 to 2023 were collected. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze spatiotemporal distribution characteristics.Spatial autocorrelation was assessed using Global Moran′s I, and six local spatial autocorrelation analyses were used to identify spatial clusters. Prospective spatiotemporal clustering analysis was conducted for prediction. Results 7 602 cases of epidemic parotitis were reported in Baoshan, with an annual average incidence rate of 15.26 per 100 000 population. The male-to-female ratio was 1.45∶1.00. Children aged 6-12 represented the high-incidence group. Students and children were the high-incidence population categories, and the epidemic seasons occurred in October-January and May-June. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that the incidence rate of epidemic parotitis in Baoshan from 2005 to 2023 exhibited significant spatial autocorrelation(Moran′s I=0.13, Z=1.98, P=0.02), with clustering predominantly in the western areas of Baoshan. Prospective spatiotemporal clustering analysis detected a recurrence interval of 11 years for clusters in Bingma Township(RR=2.16, LLR=9.03, P=0.02). Conclusions The high-risk populations for epidemic parotitis in Baoshan were males, school-aged children and students. The disease exhibited a bimodal seasonal pattern, with peaks in October-January and May-June. The western region was identified as the primary clustering area. Enhanced surveillance of high-risk populations should be strengthened, particularly during peak seasons. Preventive measures should be intensified in clustering areas to mitigate the risk of outbreaks.更多还原