【摘要】 生猪产业在国民经济发展中具有举足轻重的战略地位，探究改革开放以来生猪市场供需形势及调控对策，对推动生猪产业有序健康发展、保障猪肉市场稳定供给及缓解价格周期性波动等意义重大。改革开放以来，在猪粮比价失衡、养殖成本高收益低、宏观形势变化、环保约束趋紧、非洲猪瘟疫情暴发等诸多因素影响下，中国生猪市场历经七次供需失衡及调控。可见，非洲猪瘟等动物疫病冲击是生猪市场供需失衡的主要因素；保持政策的可预见性、精准性对保障生猪市场平稳健康运行至关重要；生猪养殖粪污治理是中长期内需要解决的重点问题；国际竞争压力加剧，外部不确定性已成为不容忽视的重要变量。为推动未来生猪产业高质量发展，建议强化生猪产业战略地位，严守猪肉供给安全底线；持续完善生猪市场监测预警机制，毫不松懈抓好非洲猪瘟等重大动物疫病防控；优化“一揽子”生猪产业支持政策，着力夯实猪肉供给保障基础；科学引导猪肉价格走势，做好生猪市场价格风险管理；加强国际贸易合作，推动进口渠道多元化。更多还原

【Abstract】 The hog industry holds a pivotal strategic position in the national economy.Exploring the supply-demand situations and regulatory measures in the hog market since the reform and opening-up era is of great significance for promoting the orderly and healthy development of the hog industry, ensuring stable pork market supply, and mitigating cyclical price fluctuations.Since the launch of reform and opening-up, China’s hog market has experienced seven instances of supply-demand imbalance and subsequent regulatory interventions.The primary causes include imbalance in the price ratio between hogs and grain, high production costs coupled with low returns in hog farming, changing macroeconomic conditions, tightening environmental constraints, and the outbreak of African swine fever.It is evident that the impact of animal diseases such as African swine fever constitutes the primary factor disrupting the balance between supply and demand in the hog market; maintaining policy predictability and precision is crucial for ensuring the stable and healthy operation of the hog market; the management of manure and wastewater from hog farming represents a key issue requiring resolution in the medium to long term; with intensifying international competitive pressures, external uncertainties have become a significant variable that cannot be overlooked.To advance the high-quality development of the hog industry in the future, it is recommended to reinforce the strategic importance of the sector and rigorously safeguard the security of pork supply; efforts should continue to refine market monitoring and early warning mechanisms for hogs, while maintaining unwavering vigilance in preventing and controlling major animal diseases such as African swine fever.A comprehensive package of supportive policies for the hog industry should be optimised, focusing on strengthening the foundation for securing pork supply.It’s imperative to scientifically guide the trend of pork prices and improve risk management of hog market prices.International trade cooperation should be enhanced to promote the diversification of import channels.更多还原