【摘要】 为了探究我国畜牧业增长动能的转化路径，并深入解析其经济增长的核心驱动因素，研究基于1988—2023年我国畜牧业时间序列数据，通过构建向量误差修正模型，系统考察物质资本、人力资本及技术进步对畜牧业经济增长的协同作用机制。结果表明：在长期均衡关系中，人力资本与技术进步的弹性系数分别为2.164和0.638,构成畜牧业经济增长的核心动力；同时，二者与物质资本呈现负相关关系。当畜牧业经济增长短期偏离均衡状态时，系统以35.0%和4.1%的调整幅度进行反向修正，直至长期均衡。畜牧业经济增长对自身冲击的响应逐渐减弱，而对技术进步冲击的响应呈现持续强化特征，成为长期增长的主要动力。畜牧业经济增长与人力资本、人力资本与物质资本之间均存在双向因果关系，二者可相互促进、动态联动；而物质资本与技术进步、技术进步与人力资本则形成单向传导链。据此，笔者提出构建“技术引领-资本适配-人力升级”的协同政策体系，通过要素动态匹配优化以破解畜牧业增长动能转换瓶颈。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to explore the transformation path of China’s animal husbandry growth momentum and in-depth analyze the core driving factors of its economic growth, based on China’s a livestock industry time series data from 1988 to 2023, this study systematically examined the synergistic mechanism of physical capital, human capital, and technological progress on the economic growth of livestock industry by constructing a vector error correction model.In the long-term equilibrium relationship, the elasticity coefficients of human capital and technological progress were 2.164 and 0.638 respectively, which constituted the core driving forces for the economic growth of livestock industry. Meanwhile, both factors showed a negative correlation with physical capital. When the economic growth of livestock industry deviates from the equilibrium state in the short term, the system would make reverse corrections with adjustment ranges of 35.0% and 4.1% until long-term equilibrium was achieved.The impact of the growth of the livestock industry economy to its own shocks was gradually weakening, while its response to shocks from technological progress showed a continuous strengthening trend, becoming the main driver of long-term growth. There was a two-way causal relationship between the growth of the livestock industry economy and human capital, as well as between human capital and physical capital; these two pairs could promote each other and form dynamic linkage. However, a one-way transmission chain was formed between physical capital and technological progress, and between technological progress and human capital.Based on these findings, the author proposes a synergistic policy framework of “technology leadership-capital adaptation-human capital upgrading” to overcome the bottlenecks in transforming the growth momentum of the livestock industry through dynamic factor allocation optimization.更多还原