【摘要】 为研究湖南省臭氧（O₃）污染死亡负担和经济健康损失，根据2015—2023年湖南省14市（州）大气污染物监测数据，综合采用全球暴露死亡模型和统计生命价值法，评估了全省实际污染水平及不同O₃控制情景下死亡负担和健康经济损失。结果表明:1) 2015—2023年全省14市（州） O₃8 h P90变化趋势不明显，仅有湘潭市O₃8 h P90呈现明显上升趋势，且通过MannKendall显著性检验（α=0.1），年上升速率为0.45μg/m³。2) 2015—2023年湖南省各地级市O₃浓度聚类可分为3类，其中位于全省偏东北部地区的长株潭等城市浓度最高，O₃低值主要集中在全省偏西部地区。与2015年相比，14市（州） O₃浓度与全省均值相异系数均同比下降，变化幅度为-74.8%～-1.4%，全省O₃浓度更加趋于均一性，O₃区域分布更均衡和集中。3)情景年2022年全省归因于O₃污染的全因、呼吸系统疾病和心血管疾病早逝人数分别为6 220.7人（95%CI:3 380.9～9 041.4人）、3 418.6人（95%CI:1 272.8～5 542.2人）、1 107.6人（95%CI:655.7～2 098.1人）。全省归因于O₃污染的健康经济损失为117.4亿元（95%CI:63.8亿～170.6亿元），经济损失占比为0.24%（95%CI:0.13%～0.35%）。受城镇和农村等不同地区统计参数差异，研究结果存在一定的不确定性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to assess the ozone-related mortality burden and health economic loss in Hunan Province,the global exposure mortality model and the value of statistical life method were comprehensively applied to evaluate the ozone-related mortality burden and the corresponding health economic losses based on current pollution levels and different ozone pollution control scenarios and the monitoring data of atmospheric pollutants in 14 cities（states） from 2015 to 2023.The results indicated: 1) The trends of the O₃ 8 h P90 in 14 cities（prefectures） were not significant and only Xiangtan City was in a significant upward trend with the annual increase rate of 0. 45 μg/（through the Mann Kendall significance test（α= 0. 1）.2） The clustering of O₃ concentrations in various regions of Hunan Province from 2015 to 2023 could be divided into three categories. Higher ozone concentrations are mainly concentrated in the northeast of the province such as Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan districts while lower ozone levels are mainly concentrated in the western part of the province.Compared with 2015,the coefficient of difference between O₃ concentration in 14 cities and the provincial average decreased year-on-year,with a range of-74. 8% to-1. 4%. O₃ concentration tends to be more uniform,and the regional characteristics of ozone concentrations are more balanced and concentrated.3) In 2022,the total number of premature deaths attributed to O₃ pollution,respiratory diseases,and cardiovascular diseases in the province were 6 220. 7（95% CI: 3 380. 9 ～ 9 041. 4）,3 418. 6（95% CI: 1 272. 8 ～ 5 542. 2）,and 1 107. 6（95% CI: 655. 7 ～ 2 098. 1）,respectively. In 2022,the health and economic losses attributed to O₃ pollution in the province amounted to 11. 74 billion yuan（95% CI: 63. 8 ～ 170. 6）,accounting for 0. 24%（95% CI:0. 13% ～ 0. 35%） of the total economic losses. Due to differences in statistical parameters between urban and rural areas,there is a certain degree of uncertainty in the research results.更多还原