【摘要】 为了评估针刺土工布在生产过程中的碳排放问题，以S工厂为研究对象，基于生命周期评价（life cycle assessment, LCA）方法构建针刺土工布生产过程的碳足迹模型。核算原材料使用、原材料运输、生产制造及辅助设备运行等阶段的碳排放；通过局部敏感性分析、全局敏感性分析识别出影响碳足迹的关键因素；结合蒙特卡洛模拟评估结果的不确定性，提出节能减排的优化路径。结果表明，S工厂每生产1 t针刺土工布，其生产过程的总碳足迹为4 374.61 kgCO₂,其中原材料使用阶段占比最高，是碳减排的核心关注点；蒙特卡洛模拟结果验证了碳足迹落在95%置信区间内，模型结果可靠。研究结果可为针刺土工布生产企业的碳排放管理提供科学依据，助力行业绿色低碳转型。更多还原

【Abstract】 To evaluate the carbon emission issue during the production process of needle-punched geotextiles, S factory was taken as the research subject. A carbon footprint model for the production process of needle-punched geotextiles was constructed based on the life cycle assessment（LCA） method to calculate the carbon emissions in stages such as raw material usage, raw material transportation, production manufacturing, and auxiliary equipment operation. Through local sensitivity analysis and global sensitivity analysis, the key influencing factors of the carbon footprint were identified. Combined with the uncertainty assessment results of the Monte Carlo simulation, an optimized path for energy conservation and emission reduction was ultimately proposed. The research results show that for every ton of needle-punched geotextiles produced by S factory, the total carbon footprint of the production process is 4 374.61 kgCO₂, with the highest proportion of raw material usage stage, which is the core focus of carbon reduction. The Monte Carlo simulation results also verify that the carbon footprint falls within the 95% confidence interval, confirming the reliability of the model results. The research findings can provide scientific basis for the carbon emission management of needle-punched geotextile production enterprises and facilitate the green and low-carbon transformation of the industry.更多还原