【摘要】 在全球风险叠加的背景下，中国高校国际科研合作持续承压。本研究基于Scopus数据库中42所“双一流”建设高校2020—2024年的75.5万条文献数据，运用文献计量法与机器学习方法，从结构、内容与绩效维度展开分析。研究发现，中国高校国际科研合作总体呈现多边化与去中心化特征，四边及以上合作论文占比由9.1%提升至13.4%。同期，中美合著论文数量下降，而中国与欧洲、共建“一带一路”国家及金砖国家的合作有所增长，合作对象结构趋于分散。受地缘政治风险影响，学科合作的重心向“硬科学筑基、软科学突破”转型，教育学、管理学等社会科学成为维系国际科研合作的新增长极，合作主题则持续向气候变化、人类健康等全球共识领域聚焦。绩效评估进一步揭示了“量质分化”效应：尽管整体研究影响力稳步攀升，但以多边合作为代表的规模扩张策略背后存在明显的“量增质减”趋势，多边合作的FWCI值由1.60下降至1.52。对此，高校应实现从“规模扩张”向“质量治理”的战略转向，实施地缘差异化策略，通过强化学科交叉与学术软实力建设，构建具备抗风险能力的全球科研新生态。更多还原

【Abstract】 Against the backdrop of compounding global risks, international scientific research collaboration in Chinese universities has been under sustained pressure. Based on 755,000 bibliographic records from 42 "Double First-Class" universities in the Scopus database spanning 2020—2024, this study employs bibliometric and machine learning methods to conduct a multidimensional analysis encompassing structural, content, and performance dimensions. The findings reveal that international scientific research collaboration among Chinese universities has exhibited an overall trend toward multilateralization and decentralization, with the proportion of papers involving four or more collaborating parties rising from 9.1% to 13.4%. During the same period, the volume of Sino-U. S. co-authored publications declined, while collaboration with European countries, Belt and Road partner countries, and BRICS members increased, resulting in a more dispersed partner structure. Driven by geopolitical risks in collaborative partnerships, the disciplinary focus of research collaboration has undergone a transition characterized by "hard sciences as foundation, social sciences as breakthrough" : disciplines such as education and management have emerged as new growth poles sustaining international scientific collaboration,while collaborative research topics have increasingly converged on globally consensual domains such as climate change and human health. Performance assessment further reveals a "quantity-quality divergence" effect: although overall research impact has steadily risen, the scale-expansion strategy represented by the multilateral shift conceals a pronounced trend of "quantity increase accompanied by quality decline", with the Field-Weighted Citation Impact(FWCI) of multilateral collaborations declining from 1.60 to 1.52. In response, universities should pursue a strategic reorientation from "scale expansion" to "quality governance", implement geographically differentiated strategies, and reshape a new risk-resilient global research ecosystem by strengthening interdisciplinary integration and fostering academic soft power.更多还原