【摘要】 新疆作为粮食安全的重要战略后备基地，对于农业种植结构调整与高质量发展起着承上启下的重要作用。在“棉改粮”种植结构调整政策的持续推动下，基于新疆维吾尔自治区5个地区410位县乡农户的实地调研数据，运用二元Logistic模型对农户“棉改粮”种植结构调整意愿及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明：农户个体特征中，年龄、受教育程度及与其他农户交流程度对种植结构调整意愿呈显著影响；农户家庭特征中，参与非农就业与参与农业组织与否是影响种植结构调整意愿的显著因素；农户认知层面，经济福利与生态保护认知对种植结构调整意愿呈显著正向影响；外部因素中，种植补贴对农户“棉改粮”种植结构调整意愿具有比较显著的牵制作用，种植补贴越合理，农户种植结构调整意愿越强烈。基于此，政策实施者应兼顾农户个人特征与家庭特征，从提高农户自身建设能力、综合福利认知及改善政策外部环境着手，以期提升农户“棉改粮”种植结构调整意愿，夯实新疆粮食后备基地建设基础，实现农业高质量发展目标。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important strategic reserve base for food security, Xinjiang plays an important role in the adjustment of agricultural planting structure and high-quality development. In the “Cotton to grain” planting structure adjustment policy continued to promote, based on the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region 5 regions of 410 county and township farmers on-the-spot survey data, binary Logistic model was used to analyze farmers′ willingness to adjust the planting structure and its influencing factors. The results show that among the individual characteristics of farmers, age, educational level, and the degree of interaction with other farmers have a significant impact on the willingness to adjust the planting structure. Among the characteristics of rural households, participation in non-agricultural employment and whether they are involved in agricultural organizations are significant factors influencing the willingness to adjust the agricultural structure. At the cognitive level of farmers, the awareness of economic welfare and ecological protection has a significant positive impact on the willingness to adjust planting structures. Among external factors, the subsidy for crop cultivation has a relatively significant restraining effect on farmers′ willingness to adjust their planting structure from cotton to grain. The more reasonable the subsidy is, the stronger the farmers′ willingness to adjust their planting structure will be. Therefore, the policy implementers should take into account the individual and family characteristics of farmers, and start from improving the ability of farmers to build their own comprehensive welfare awareness and improve the external environment of the policy, in order to promote farmers′ willingness to “cotton to grain” planting structure adjustment, tamping Xinjiang grain reserve base construction foundation, to achieve high-quality agricultural development goals.更多还原