【摘要】 居民是气候变化风险的直接承受者，也是应对行动的关键实践者，探究城市居民气候变化风险感知的影响因素与作用路径，对提升公众气候适应能力、增强城市气候韧性具有重要意义。北京市自2023年以来连续遭遇暴雨、高温等极端天气事件，气候变化风险极具典型性。基于个人主动适应气候变化的社会认知框架(MPPACC),构建结构方程模型，依托707份调查问卷数据对北京市居民气候变化风险感知的影响因素展开分析。研究发现：北京市居民风险感知呈现显著社会分层特征，高学历、中高收入群体以及公共部门从业人员的风险评价和适应评价水平较高，低学历、低收入群体则表现出更低的风险评价和适应评价水平；政府支持和信息获取对风险评价和适应评价具有显著的正向影响，社会信任对风险评价的影响不显著，但对适应评价具有显著的正向影响；社会信任、信息获取和风险评价在政府支持与适应评价之间起链式多重中介作用，风险感知的形成遵循“政府资源支持→社会信任构建→信息有效获取→风险评价形成→适应评价调适”的递进演化路径。据此，建议实施分层精准支持以补齐能力短板，优化信息联动传递以强化认知基础，开展全周期教育干预以促进行为转化，切实增强首都居民气候适应和风险防范能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the direct bearers of climate risks and key agents of adaptation actions, it is critical for urban residents to build climate-resilient cities. This study investigates the determinants of climate risk perception among urban residents using survey data from Beijing and applying the Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change(MPPACC) within a structural equation modeling(SEM) framework. The analysis identifies multiple factors shaping risk perception.Individuals with higher education, income, or public-sector employment display stronger risk and adaptation appraisals, while those with lower socioeconomic status exhibit reduced perceptual sensitivity. Government support and information accessibility positively influence both appraisals. Although social trust does not directly shape risk perception, it strengthens adaptation appraisal and aids information acquisition. A key finding is the sequential mediation path: government support→social trust→information access→risk appraisal→adaptation appraisal, illustrating a progression from institutional support to cognitive adaptation. We recommend targeted interventions, including stratified resource allocation, improved information delivery, and lifelong learning initiatives, to narrow perceptual gaps and enhance urban adaptive capacity.更多还原