【摘要】 目的 分析广州市学生健康监测系统运行情况，评价其预警效果，为进一步优化系统的预警能力提供参考。方法 对广州市学生健康监测系统预警信息特征及对校园传染病突发公共卫生事件预警的有效性进行分析，并采用错位相关分析法对学生监测系统产生的预警信号及传染病报告系统上报事件对应的传染病报告2组数据源的时间错位相关关系进行研究。结果 2023年1月至2024年7月系统共发出预警信号61 555条，响应及时率97.54%(60 041/61 555)，信号准确率为98.25%(60 480/61 555)，总预警阳性率为28.15%(17 325/61 555)。校园传染病突发公共卫生事件预警灵敏度为90.59%(77/85)，预警及时率为87.06%(74/85)。预警信息与对应的报告传染病2组数据以周为单位的水平下具有显著的正相关性（P<0.01），错位相关分析显示：皮疹症状、手足口病预警信号与对应的报告传染病具有时间先导性，可提前1～3周发现相关目标疾病的波动。结论 广州市学生健康监测系统与法定传染病报告信息系统具有较好的适配性，为早期识别与发现学龄人群传染病的暴发预警提供依据，可适时调整预警界值等参数、提高数据报告质量，优化系统以提高系统的预警阳性率。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the operational performance of the Guangzhou Student Health Monitoring System and evaluate its early warning effectiveness, thereby providing an evidentiary basis for the further optimization of the system’s predictive capabilities. Methods An analysis was conducted on the characteristics of the alert signals generated by the Guangzhou Student Health Monitoring System and its efficacy in the early warning of infectious disease-related public health emergencies on school campuses. Furthermore, a cross-correlation analysis was employed to investigate the timelag relationship between two data sources: the early warning signals produced by the student monitoring system and the corresponding case reports from the statutory infectious disease reporting system. Results From January 2023 to July 2024, the system generated a total of 61 555 early warning signals, achieving a timely response rate of 97.54%(60 041/61 555), a signal accuracy rate of 98.25%(60 480/61 555), and an overall positive predictive value of 28.15%(17 325/61 555). For campus-based infectious disease public health emergencies, the system demonstrated a sensitivity of 90.59%(77/85) and a timeliness rate of 87.06%(74/85). At a weekly aggregation level, the warning signals and the corresponding reported infectious disease data exhibited a significant positive correlation(P<0.01). The cross-correlation analysis revealed that alert signals for rash-related symptoms and Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease demonstrated a temporal precedence, enabling the detection of fluctuations in the incidence of these target diseases 1 to 3 weeks in advance. Conclusion The Guangzhou Student Health Monitoring System demonstrates substantial concordance with the statutory notifiable infectious disease reporting system, providing a robust foundation for the early identification and warning of infectious disease outbreaks among the school-aged population. System performance may be further enhanced by strategically adjusting parameters such as warning thresholds and improving the quality of data reporting to increase the positive predictive value of the alerts.更多还原