【摘要】 在“双碳”目标驱动能源结构转型与山西省作为煤炭大省电力行业碳排放突出的双重背景下，新能源替代已成为推动该省电力行业低碳发展的关键路径。然而，学术界对新能源与煤电全生命周期碳排放差异尚未进行系统地科学探究，为转型路径制定带来不确定性，精准估算与预测相关碳排放对明确转型方向、优化能源布局具有重要意义。该文以山西省电力系统为研究对象，基于煤电、光电、风电和水电等4类发电模式的发展态势及山西省“十五五”规划中的装机量目标，设定基准、适度和强化等3种新能源替代情景，应用全生命周期评估方法预测了2026-2030年山西省电力行业的碳排放，旨在为区域电力行业低碳转型提供科学决策依据。结果表明，基准情景下，2024-2030年煤电占比从76.28%降至61.56%，全周期碳排放下降0.19亿t，新能源发电占比从28.56%提升至38.44%；强化情景下，2030年煤电占比47.25%，全周期碳排放下降0.88亿t，新能源发电占比52.75%。因煤电贡献最大，清洁能源装机量比例提升后，即使以全生命周期评价的视角看，碳排放量降低亦是整体态势，基准情景下2030年相比现状下降了4.59%，适度情景和强化情景下2030年电力行业碳排放量分别降低15.55%和24.27%。新能源发电的全生命周期碳排放中，最大比例来自光伏发电，2030年占比79.20%～83.00%，光伏发电的建设阶段碳排放贡献最大，风电的建设阶段、水力发电中运维阶段的碳排放也不可忽视。该研究可为山西省电力行业低碳转型政策提供可靠的科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Against the dual backdrop of the “dual carbon” goals driving energy structure transformation and Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, having prominent carbon emissions in its power sector, new energy substitution has become a key pathway to advance the low-carbon development of the province’s power industry. However, the academic community has not yet conducted systematic and scientific research on the differences in full life cycle carbon emissions between new energy and coal-fired power, which brings uncertainties to the formulation of transformation pathways. Accurate estimation and prediction of relevant carbon emissions are of great significance for clarifying transformation directions and optimizing energy layout. Taking Shanxi Province’s power system as the research object, this study sets three new energy substitution scenarios(baseline, moderate, and enhanced) based on the development trends of four power generation modes(coal-fired power, photovoltaic power, wind power, and hydropower) and the installed capacity targets outlined in the 15 th Five-Year Plan. It applies the life-cycle assessment method to predict carbon emissions of power industry from 2026 to 2030, aiming to provide a scientific decision-making basis for the low-carbon transformation of the regional power industry. The results show that under the baseline scenario, the proportion of coal-fired power decreases from 76.28% to 61.56% between 2024 and 2030,with full life cycle carbon emissions reducing by 19 million tons; meanwhile, the proportion of new energy power increases from 28.56% to 38.44%. Under the enhanced scenario, the proportion of coal-fired power drops to 47.25% in 2030, with full life cycle carbon emissions decreasing by 88 million tons, while the proportion of new energy power reaches 52.75%. Since coal-fired power contributes the most to carbon emissions, after increasing the proportion of clean energy installed capacity, a general downward trend in carbon emissions is observed even from the perspective of life-cycle assessment: compared with the current situation, carbon emissions in 2030 decrease by 4.59% under the baseline scenario, and by 15.55% and 24.27% respectively under the moderate and enhanced scenarios. Among the full life cycle carbon emissions of new energy power generation, photovoltaic power accounts for the largest proportion, ranging from 79.20% to 83.00% in 2030. The construction phase contributes the most to photovoltaic power’s carbon emissions; additionally, carbon emissions from the construction phase of wind power and the operation and maintenance phase of hydropower cannot be ignored. This study can provide a reliable scientific basis for policies related to the low-carbon transformation of Shanxi’s power industry.更多还原