【摘要】 研究陕西省建筑业碳排放影响因素，对于推动区域建筑业绿色转型并助力“双碳”目标实现具有重要意义。本文以2008-2023年陕西省建筑业为研究对象，聚焦碳排放驱动机制与减排路径这一核心问题，旨在识别关键影响因素并明确各因素作用。采用LMDI模型分解影响因素，结合LEAP模型进行情景预测，并通过参数敏感性分析识别关键变量。研究发现，规模效应是主要增排因素，强度效应为核心减排力量，能源结构转型滞后；未来基准情景下2035年碳排放将达5900万t,低碳情景可实现2025年碳达峰，冬季煤炭消耗、电动机械可靠性等参数影响显著。研究结论为陕西省建筑业制定分阶段减排策略提供了科学依据，也为西北同类地区行业低碳转型提供了参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Investigating the factors influencing carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province’s construction industry is crucial for advancing the sector’s green transformation and supporting the achievement of China’s carbon peak and neutrality goals. This study examines the construction industry in Shaanxi Province from 2008 to 2023, focusing on the driving mechanisms behind carbon emissions and potential pathways for reduction, with the aim of identifying key influencing factors and clarifying their respective roles. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method is employed to decompose the influencing factors, combined with the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning(LEAP) model for scenario projections. Key variables are further identified through parameter sensitivity analysis. The results reveal that the scale effect is the primary driver of emission increases, while the intensity effect serves as the main force for emission reduction, although energy structure transformation remains slow. Under the business-as-usual scenario, carbon emissions are projected to reach 59 million tons by 2035, whereas the low-carbon scenario could achieve peak emissions by 2025. Parameters such as coal consumption in winter and the reliability of electric machinery significantly influence the outcomes. The findings provide a scientific basis for formulating phased emission reduction strategies for Shaanxi Province’s construction industry and offer valuable insights for supporting low-carbon transitions in similar regions across Northwest China.更多还原