【摘要】 目的 分析中国四个地区2005—2020年胎传梅毒发病情况，预测其变化趋势，为胎传梅毒防控提供科学依据。方法 收集2005—2020年中国东部、西部、中部和东北部地区胎传梅毒发病数据，使用Joinpoint软件计算年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC),分析其变化趋势。并使用SPSS 26.0软件建立ARIMA模型，预测2021—2025年发病情况。结果 2005—2020年，胎传梅毒共发病107 504例，发病率在2011年达到峰值，为0.90/10万，在2020年下降至0.09/10万。2020年东部、中部、西部和东北部地区的发病率分别下降至0.07/10万、0.06/10万、0.12/10万和0.15/10万。Joinpoint回归分析显示，2005—2020年，中国(AAPC=-8.68%,t=-5.18,P<0.05)、东部地区(AAPC=-12.01%,t=-6.81,P<0.05),中部地区(AAPC=-5.45%,t=-2.09,P<0.05)、西部地区(AAPC=-6.05%,t=-3.00,P<0.05)的胎传梅毒发病率均呈现下降趋势，东北部地区胎传梅毒发病率未随年份呈现明显变化趋势(AAPC=-1.66%,t=-1.18,P>0.05)。构建ARIMA(2,2,0)模型，预测显示，2021—2025年胎传梅毒年发病率分别为0.06/10万、0.03/10万、0.02/10万、0.01/10万、0.01/10万。结论 2005—2020年，中国胎传梅毒发病率整体呈现下降趋势，西部、东北部地区是重点防控地区，需要持续推进“消除梅毒母婴传播”工作。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the incidence of congenital syphilis in four regions of China from 2005 to 2020 and predict its change trend, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of congenital syphilis. Methods The incidence data of congenital syphilis in Eastern, Western, Central and Northeastern China from 2005 to 2020 were collected.The annual change percentage(APC) and average annual change percentage(AAPC) were calculated by Joinpoint software, and the change trend was analyzed.The ARIMA model was established by SPSS26.0 software to predict the incidence from 2021 to 2025. Results From 2005 to 2020,there were 107 504 cases of congenital syphilis, and the incidence reached the peak in 2011,which was 0.90/100 000,and decreased to 0.09/100 000 in 2020.The incidence of congenital syphilis in the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions of China decreased to 0.07/100 000,0.06/100 000,0.12/100 000,and 0.15/100 000 in 2020,respectively.Joinpoint regression analysis found that from 2005 to 2020,the incidence of congenital syphilis showed a downward trend in the whole country(AAPC=-8.68%,t=-5.18,P<0.05),the eastern region(AAPC=-12.01%,t=-6.81,P<0.05),the central region(AAPC=-5.45%,t=-2.09,P<0.05),and the western region(AAPC=-6.05%,t=-3.00,P<0.05),while the incidence in the northeast region was relatively stable(AAPC=-1.66%,t=-1.18,P>0.05).The ARIMA(2,2,0) model was constructed to predict that the annual incidence of congenital syphilis from 2021 to 2025 would be 0.06/100 000,0.03/100 000,0.02/100 000,0.01/100 000,and 0.01/100 000,respectively. Conclusion From 2005 to 2020,the incidence of congenital syphilis in China shows an overall downward trend.The Western and Northeastern Regions are the key prevention and control areas, and the work of "eliminating mother to child transmission of syphilis" needs to be continuously promoted.更多还原