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深化上海合作组织经济合作:俄罗斯的立场选择逻辑

Deepening Economic Cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: The Logic behind Russia’s Choice of Position

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【作者】 李孝天左凤荣

【Author】 Li Xiaotian;Zuo Fengrong;

【机构】 对外经济贸易大学国际关系学院中共中央党校(国家行政学院)国际战略研究院

【摘要】 深化经济合作是推动上海合作组织发展的重要引擎。中国是最主要、最积极的引领者和贡献者。然而,俄罗斯对深化上合组织经济合作的积极程度不如中国。对中国提出的有关倡议,如建立上合组织自贸区和成立上合组织开发银行,俄罗斯的支持力度还有明显的提升空间。俄罗斯的立场选择主要受其偏好和倾向的影响。其中,俄罗斯对上合组织的利益偏好框定了其对深化该组织经济合作的整体立场。在此基础上,俄罗斯对中国在上合组织内部地位的承认倾向决定了其对旨在深化该组织经济合作的中国倡议的具体立场。基于“安全优先、经济次之”的利益偏好,俄罗斯对深化上合组织经济合作、推动地区经济一体化的态度不够积极,更倾向于在欧亚经济联盟框架下推动地区经济一体化。在此基础上,因为对中国可能获得上合组织内部首要地位较为敏感,所以俄罗斯长期对建立上合组织自贸区持有条件支持立场。对于成立上合组织开发银行,俄罗斯的立场从有限支持逐渐转变为支持,但是实际支持力度还有待观察。中国需要正视这种情况并探索相应的调适路径,以便同俄罗斯进一步凝聚深化上合组织经济合作共识,汇聚共建“繁荣发展的上合组织家园”的强大合力。

【Abstract】 Deepening economic cooperation is a key engine driving the development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation(SCO). China is the most important and most proactive leader and contributor in this regard. However, Russia has been less enthusiastic than China about advancing the SCO economic cooperation. Regarding Chinese proposals, such as establishing an SCO free trade area(FTA) and creating an SCO development bank, there remains considerable room for stronger Russian support. Russia’s position is shaped primarily by its preferences and inclinations. Specifically, Russia’s interest preferences regarding the SCO set the overall tone of its stance toward deepening the organisation’s economic cooperation. On this basis, Russia’s inclination to recognise China’s status within the SCO determines its specific stance toward Chinese initiatives aimed at strengthening such cooperation. Guided by an interest preference of “security first, economy second”, Russia is not sufficiently proactive in promoting deeper SCO economic cooperation and regional economic integration, but instead tends to advance regional integration within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union(EAEU). Further, because Russia is sensitive to the possibility that China may attain a pre-eminent position within the SCO, it has long adopted a position of conditional support for establishing an SCO FTA. As for creating an SCO development bank, Russia’s stance has gradually shifted from limited support to support, though the extent of its practical backing remains to be seen. China needs to acknowledge this reality and explore corresponding adjustment paths so as to further build consensus with Russia on deepening SCO economic cooperation and to pool strong momentum for jointly building “a shared SCO home of prosperity and development”.

【基金】 国家社会科学基金青年项目“上海合作组织的新发展与‘上合命运共同体’的构建研究”(项目批准号:22CGJ011)的阶段性研究成果
  • 【文献出处】 俄罗斯研究 ,Russian Studies , 编辑部邮箱 ,2026年01期
  • 【分类号】D814.1;D851.2
  • 【下载频次】129
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