【摘要】 地缘政治冲突深刻影响国家的人口结构和发展轨迹。2022年爆发的俄乌冲突对长期深陷人口结构性危机的俄罗斯造成了“人口地震”式的冲击。在“量”的加速消耗与“质”的深层损害两个维度上，俄罗斯人口画像呈现“更少、更老、更不平衡”的特征。从人口政治学视角审视，这一现象凸显人口变迁与政治动态的互动关系。为应对危机，俄罗斯政府实施了一套“安全化”与“去安全化”并行、中央统筹与地方协同的政策体系，涵盖生育激励、移民调控和兵役动员等方面。然而，短期政策难以解决长期的人口困境。研究表明，人口结构的持续恶化对俄罗斯产生了纵深影响，驱动其国家治理能力呈现逆现代化转向，国家战略趋于工具化，国际定位被迫现实化。俄罗斯的困境是全球低生育率和人口结构加速转型的缩影，凸显出人口安全深刻影响一国治理韧性与国际竞争力的现实。因此，在解析俄罗斯及类似国家的发展前景问题上，将政治动态与人口结构变迁视为相互交织的核心变量无疑具有重要意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Geopolitical conflicts profoundly impact a nation ’s demographic structure and developmental trajectory. The Russia-Ukraine conflict,which erupted in 2022,delivered a demographic earthquake to Russia—a nation already mired in a long-standing,structural demographic crisis. Across two dimensions—the accelerated depletion of quantity and the deep-seated impairment of quality—Russia’s demographic profile has come to be characterized as “fewer,older,and more unbalanced ”. Viewed through the lens of demopolitics,this phenomenon underscores the intricate interplay between demographic shifts and political dynamics. To address this crisis, the Russian government has implemented a policy framework characterized by a parallel approach of securitization and de-securitization,as well as coordinated action between central authorities and local administrations; these measures encompass areas such as fertility incentives,migration regulation,and military conscription. However,short-term policies are ill-equipped to resolve long-term demographic predicaments. Research indicates that the persistent deterioration of its demographic structure has exerted a profound and far-reaching influence on Russia: it has driven a reverse modernization shift in its state governance capacity, pushed its national strategy toward instrumentalization, and compelled a realist reorientation of its international positioning. Russia ’s predicament serves as a microcosm of the global trends of declining fertility rates and accelerating demographic transitions,highlighting the reality that demographic security profoundly impacts a nation’s governance resilience and international competitiveness.Consequently,when analyzing the developmental prospects of Russia and similar nations,treating political dynamics and demographic structural shifts as mutually intertwined core variables is undoubtedly of paramount importance.更多还原