【摘要】 针对我国尚未建立适用的傅里叶幅值谱预测模型，基于中国强震动记录Flatfile数据集，考虑震源效应、传播路径和场地条件的影响，利用随机效应方法回归建立了川滇地区水平向傅里叶有效幅值谱(EAS)预测模型.模型适用条件为：频段0.25～40.0 Hz、断层距0～300 km、震级3.0～7.0.残差分析表明，模型整体拟合效果良好，基本上不存在系统偏差；受场地反应变化的影响，高频EAS的随机不确定性较大；EAS的不确定性存在区域性差异，主要受场地效应主导.与BA18模型相比，本文模型预测的EAS在小震较高频率时偏高，在大震低频时偏低；而与SA23模型在较大震级时基本一致，但本文模型在小震高频时预测EAS偏高.与这两个模型对比发现，我国川滇地区的小震EAS高频相对美国加州地区和法国都相对丰富，大震EAS低频较美国加州地区相对缺乏，表明EAS存在显著区域依赖性，应针对不同地区构建各自适用的区域预测模型.本文研究工作可为我国其他地区发展EAS预测模型提供技术参考途径.更多还原

【Abstract】 To address the lack of an applicable Fourier amplitude spectrum(FAS) prediction model in China, a horizontal Fourier effective amplitude spectrum(EAS) prediction model for the Sichuan-Yunnan region was established using the random effects method based on the China Strong Motion Flatfile dataset. This model considers the influence of source effects, propagation path, and site conditions. The model is applicable to frequencies of 0.25 ～ 40.0 Hz, rupture distances of 0 ～ 300 km, and magnitudes of 3.0 ～ 7.0. Residual analysis indicates that the overall fit of the model is satisfactory, with no significant systematic bias. Due to the influence of site response variability, the aleatory uncertainty of EAS is much larger at high frequencies. The uncertainty in EAS exhibits regional variations, primarily governed by site effects. Compared with the BA18 model, the predicted EAS tends to be slightly higher at higher frequencies for small earthquakes and lower at lower frequencies for large earthquakes. In comparison with the SA23 model, the predictions are generally consistent for larger magnitudes, but the model in this study tends to over-predict EAS at high frequencies for small earthquakes. The comparison with these two models reveals that for small earthquakes, the high-frequency EAS in the Sichuan-Yunnan region of China contains stronger high-frequency content compared to California, USA,and France, while for large earthquakes, the low-frequency EAS are relatively lower than those in California,USA. This indicates that EAS exhibits significant regional dependence, and highlighting the need for regionspecific prediction models for different areas. This study provides a technical basis for developing EAS prediction models in other regions of China.更多还原