【摘要】 防范和化解相对贫困风险是构建相对贫困长效治理机制的重要切入点，对健全农村常态化防止返贫致贫机制、完善欠发达山区分层分类帮扶体系具有重要意义。基于“人-地-业”维度构建农户多维相对贫困风险分析框架，以石柱土家族自治县为例，测度2013—2023年农户相对贫困风险，刻画其时空分异性和结构演变规律，剖析风险之间的关联性，并模拟相对贫困风险演化趋势。研究表明：(1) 2013—2023年农户相对贫困风险总体保持稳定，其中金融风险和自然风险处于较高水平，劳动能力冲击与金融风险呈现较快增长态势。(2)传统务农和自主经营生计类型的农户相对贫困风险相对较高，政策保障生计类型的农户相对贫困风险增加较快。偏远中山地区农户风险水平相对较高，而高山地区风险水平呈下降态势。(3)风险结构具有异质性，以“双弱型”和“外部扰动型”风险结构类型为主，生理脆弱性、地理劣势性和市场竞争弱能性的优劣势转化推动农户风险结构转变，体现了相对贫困风险结构的动态演替特征。(4)风险间存在显著关联效应，劳动能力冲击-健康风险-金融风险、自然风险-经营性风险呈现明显传导性。(5)应着力降低农户的金融风险和自然风险，缓解教育压力和政策依赖风险，重点帮扶自主经营型和传统务农型农户，防范务工型和政策保障型农户风险攀升，持续强化对偏远山区农户的产业扶持和社会保障政策倾斜力度。更多还原

【Abstract】 Preventing and mitigating the risk of relative poverty is both a key entry point for establishing a long-term governance mechanism and essential for creating standardized antipoverty systems in underdeveloped mountainous areas. This paper constructed a multidimensional analysis framework for relative poverty risk among rural households based on the human-land-industry dimensions. Taking Shizhu County in Chongqing as an example, this paper measured the relative poverty risk of rural households from 2013 to 2023, and explored the spatiotemporal variations and structural characteristics of relative poverty risk. The interdependencies among risk categories were analyzed, and the evolution trend of relative poverty risk was simulated. The study shows that:(1) From 2013 to 2023, the overall relative poverty risk of rural households remains stable, with notably high financial risk and natural risk, and rapid growth in labor capacity shock and financial risk.(2) Households engaged in traditional farming and self-operated livelihood exhibited higher relative poverty risk, while those reliant on policy support experienced a sharp increase in such risk. Rural households in remote mountainous areas faced higher risk level, whereas those in alpine regions showed a declining trend.(3) The risk structure was predominantly characterized by dual weaknesses and external disturbance types. The transition from physiological vulnerability, geographical disadvantage, and market competitiveness to relation advantage/disadvantage drove the evolution of rural households’ risk structures, reflecting the dynamic changes in relative poverty risk patterns.(4) Significant correlations and transmission characteristics were observed between labor capacity shock, health risk, and financial risk, as well as between natural risk and operational risk.(5) Policy interventions should prioritize mitigating financial and natural risks, alleviating educational and policy-related pressures, and addressing the risks faced by independent and traditional farming households. Additionally, policies should aim to prevent the escalation of risks among migrant laborers and policy-dependent households, while continuously enhancing preferential support for households in remote mountainous areas.更多还原