【摘要】 堤坝溃口特征参数的快速预测对防洪抢险具有重要意义。本研究主要针对水库型堤坝溃口，通过对国内外溃坝/溃堤案例的广泛收集整理，形成了包含7个参数（坝高、溃口底部以上水深、溃口最终深度、水库库容、溃口底部以上库容、峰值流量和溃口宽度）的溃坝/溃堤数据库。首次使用层次聚类方法分析获得了7个参数的相关性，在此基础上，选用相关性强的参数组合，构建了峰值流量和溃口宽度的预测公式。选取3个国内外典型溃坝案例对预测公式进行验证，证明了预测公式的实用性和合理性。与国内外常用溃坝溃口特征参数预测公式相比，本研究的预测公式具有更高的精度。本研究成果可为水库型堤坝溃决应急决策提供理论支持，也可为河道型堤坝溃口参数预测提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The prediction of breach parameters is of great significance for downstream rescue and disaster relief. This study mainly focuses on the breach of reservoir dams. Through extensive collection and organization of domestic and foreign dam/embankment failure cases, a dam/embankment failure database has been formed, which includes seven dam breach parameters, namely dam height, height of water above breach bottom, height of breach, reservoir storage, volume of water above breach bottom, peak discharge and final breach average width. The correlation between the parameters is obtained based on the hierarchical clustering method. Moreover, the prediction equations for peak discharge and breach width are established by the correlation. Three typical dam breach cases are selected to verify the new prediction equation, which proves the practicability and rationality of the prediction equation, and it is found that the prediction equation proposed in this paper has better performance than commonly used equations both domestically and internationally for predicting characteristic parameters of dam breaches. The results can provide theoretical support for emergency decision-making up on reservoir dam failure, and can also provide reference for river embankments.更多还原