【摘要】 财政刺激不是在恒定不变的宏观环境下实施的，财政刺激的效果可能会受到宏观环境的影响。文章首先基于1994—2021年中国宏观层面的年度数据，使用局部投影技术实证研究了财政支出乘数对劳动收入份额的状态相依性。结果表明，不论是从单期效应还是累积效应看，“低劳动收入份额”状态下的财政支出乘数都要小于“高劳动收入份额”状态下的财政支出乘数，劳动收入份额的提高有助于提升财政刺激的效果。进一步，文章构建了一个具有异质性个体的多期世代交叠模型，并基于中国数据校准了该模型，在此基础上评估了财政刺激效果对劳动收入份额的状态相依性。模拟结果同样表明，劳动收入份额与模型生成的冲击期财政支出乘数呈正相关的关系。文章为如何在推进共同富裕的背景下更好地提高财政政策效能提供了理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Fiscal stimulus is not implemented in a constant macroeconomic environment, and its effectiveness may be influenced by prevailing macroeconomic conditions. The article first empirically examines the state-dependence of fiscal multipliers on the labor share of income,utilizing local projection techniques based on macroeconomic data from China for the period1994-2021. The results indicate that, whether measured by single-period or cumulative effects,the fiscal multiplier is smaller under conditions of a “low labor income share” compared to a“high labor income share”. An increase in the labor share of income thus enhances the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus. Furthermore, The article constructs a multi-period overlapping generations(OLG) model featuring heterogeneous agents, which is calibrated using Chinese data. Based on this model, the article evaluates the dependence of fiscal stimulus effects on the labor share of income. The simulation results similarly demonstrate a positive correlation between the labor share of income and the impact-period fiscal multiplier generated by the model. The article provides a theoretical basis for how to better improve the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the context of advancing common prosperity.更多还原