【摘要】 小城镇是城乡间的重要纽带，其发展动力薄弱已成为制约我国大中小城市协调发展的短板，以上海市为例，基于多源数据研判新市镇发展基本态势，使用因子分析提取特征、多元线性回归识别关联因素、空间杜宾模型测度溢出效应等方法，研究发现新市镇发展既受到主城区的支配性影响，也处于城镇间复杂竞合关系的相互作用中。基于上海市新市镇实证分析成果，将大城市周边小城镇发展动力机制凝练为四个方面：1）大城市发展目标传导为周边小城镇发展的基本动力；2）大城市主城区的虹吸效应导致周边小城镇发展可能性收窄；3）大城市的外溢效应推动周边小城镇配套产业发展；4）竞争与合作对邻近小城镇的发展产生双向作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Small towns serve as crucial links between urban and rural areas. Their weak development momentum has become a bottleneck constraining the coordinated development of large, medium, and small cities in China. Taking Shanghai as an example, this study analyzes the fundamental trends of new town development based on multi-source data. Analytical methods such as factor analysis for extracting characteristics, multiple linear regression for identifying associated factors, and the Spatial Durbin Model for measuring spillover effects are employed. The research finds that the development of new towns is subject to both the dominant influence of the central city and the complex interplay of competition and cooperation among the new towns themselves. Based on the empirical findings from Shanghai’s new towns, this study synthesizes the development dynamics mechanism of small towns surrounding large cities into four aspects: 1) The transmission and transformation of the large city’s development goals constitute the fundamental driving force for surrounding small towns; 2) The siphon effect of the large city narrows the development possibilities for surrounding small towns; 3) The spillover effects of the large city promote the development of supporting industries in surrounding small towns; 4) Competition and cooperation play a dual role in the development of adjacent small towns.更多还原