【摘要】 常规金融资本存在离农化趋势，适时引导耐心资本下乡是推动传统农业向现代农业转型升级的重要抓手。基于2011—2023年224个地级市的面板数据和2020年中国乡村振兴调查的微观数据，文章以政策性农业担保为准自然实验，识别了耐心资本下乡对农业绿色转型的影响效应。研究发现，实施政策性农业担保显著提升了农业绿色全要素生产率，经过一系列稳健性检验后该结论依然成立，这说明引导耐心资本下乡有助于推动农业绿色转型。机制分析表明，政策性农业担保有助于扩大农地经营规模和提升农业分工水平，两者协同互补能共同驱动农业绿色转型。基于担保、供给、需求三方主体的异质性分析发现，政策性农业担保的影响效应在农业担保机构管理模式扁平化、商业银行竞争强度较高、农业经营主体信用水平较高的地区更加明显。进一步分析发现，在担保手段上深化对金融科技的应用和在担保内容上强化与农机购置补贴的联动，是发挥政策协同效应，进而加速农业绿色转型进程的重要路径。文章以政策性农业担保为切入点，将耐心资本研究扩展至农业领域，为金融赋能农业转型升级贡献了全新思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 The conventional financial capital shows a trend of moving away from agriculture. Timely guiding and encouraging patient capital to enter rural areas is an important approach to promoting the transformation of traditional agriculture to modern agriculture.Based on the panel data of 224 prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2023 and the micro data from the2020 China Rural Revitalization Survey, this paper sets up a quasi-natural experiment with policy-based agricultural guarantee as the starting point to identify the impact of patient capital entering rural areas on the green transformation of agriculture. The study finds that the implementation of policy-based agricultural guarantee significantly improves the TFP of agriculture in a green manner. After a series of robustness tests, the conclusion remains valid, proving that guiding patient capital to rural areas helps promote the green transformation of agriculture. Mechanism testing shows that policy-based agricultural guarantee helps expand the scale of agricultural land operation and improve the level of agricultural division of labor. The two work together and complement each other to drive the green transformation of agriculture. Based on the heterogeneity analysis of the three parties involved in guarantee, supply, and demand, it is found that the impact of policy-based agricultural guarantee is more obvious in regions with flattened management models of agricultural guarantee institutions, higher competition intensity of commercial banks, and better credit levels of agricultural operators. Further analysis reveals that deepening the application of FinTech in guarantee methods and strengthening the linkage with agricultural machinery purchase subsidies in guarantee content are important paths to leverage policy synergy and accelerate the process of agricultural green transformation.This paper takes policy-based agricultural guarantee as the starting point and extends the study of patient capital to the agricultural field, providing a new perspective for using finance to promote the transformation and upgrading of agriculture.更多还原