【摘要】 针对受底辟波及的海相沉积地层所面临的井漏、溢流以及井壁坍塌等问题，依据油气田的地质资料建立储层构造模型，并结合已钻井测井数据、地应力、地层压力等数据，借助Petrel软件建立三维地质力学模型；在此基础上进一步构建四维地应力模型，分析地应力随着开采年限的变化规律。研究结果表明：(1)三维地应力模型与单井地应力数据相符度较高，最大误差为5.07%,具有良好的精确度；(2)经过15年的油气开采，目标区块内最大水平主地应力下降了43.58～43.8 MPa,最小水平主地应力下降了38.73～38.95 MPa;(3)随着开采时间的延长，地层孔隙压力逐渐降低，研究区域水平井极限坍塌压差随之递减，预测在2026～2027年间极限压差值等于配产压差，导致井眼坍塌。研究通过四维地应力场模拟技术，实现了水平井井眼全寿命开采周期预测，为底辟波及区域的防砂设计及安全生产提供了重要依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Addressing issues such as lost circulation, overflow, and wellbore collapse encountered in marine sedimentary strata affected by diapirism, a reservoir structural model was established based on geological data from oil and gas fields.Combined with drilled well logging data, in-situ stress, formation pressure, and other data, a three-dimensional geomechanical model was constructed using Petrel software.Based on this, a four-dimensional in-situ stress model was further developed to analyze the variation of in-situ stress with the years of production.The research results indicate that:(1)the three-dimensional in-situ stress model has a high degree of consistency with single-well in-situ stress data, with a maximum error of 5.07%, demonstrating good accuracy;(2)after 15 years of oil and gas production, the maximum horizontal main in-situ stress decreased by 38.73～38.95 MPa, and the minimum horizontal main in-situ stress decreased by 43.58～43.8 MPa;(3)as production time increases, the formation pore pressure gradually decreases, and the limit collapse pressure differential of horizontal wells in the study area decreases accordingly.By 2026～2027, the limit pressure differential will equal the allocated production pressure differential, leading to wellbore collapse.Through four-dimensional in-situ stress field simulation technology, the study achieved prediction of the full-life productioncycle of horizontal wellbore, providing an important basis for sand control design and safe production in areas affected by diapirism.更多还原