【摘要】 为评估PLUS模型在中心城区尺度模拟下的可行性与潜在偏差，本文以邹城市中心城区为研究对象，耦合GMOP与PLUS模型，模拟了2035年规划制约、经济优先、生态涵养与综合发展4种情景下的蓝绿空间格局，并与国土空间总体规划进行系统比对。研究发现：(1)邹城市中心城区空间演变表现为向东拓展、蓝绿灰组团融合特征；(2)生态涵养情景是保障规划蓝图落地的底线路径，规划制约情景是实现高质量、可持续、提升长期综合价值的理想路径；(3)PLUS模型对未利用地、道路绿地及规划人工水系等政策性、工程性用地的模拟存在局限。本文利用GMOP模型提升了PLUS模型的精细化预测能力，但融合政策规则与多源数据仍是城区尺度蓝绿空间模拟预测的发展趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 To evaluate the feasibility and potential biases of the PLUS model when applied at the central urban area scale.Taking the central urban area of Zoucheng city as the study site, this paper coupled the GMOP and PLUS models to simulate blue-green space patterns under four scenarios—planning constraints, economic priority, ecological conservation, and comprehensive development—by 2035.These results were systematically compared with the national territorial spatial master plan.Findings indicate:(1)Spatial evolution in Zoucheng’s central urban area exhibits eastward expansion and integration of blue-green-gray clusters.(2)The ecological conservation scenario represents the baseline pathway for implementing the planning blueprint, while the planning constraints scenario serves as the ideal path for achieving high-quality, sustainable development and enhancing long-term comprehensive value.(3)The PLUS model exhibits limitations in simulating policy-driven and engineering-based land uses such as undeveloped land, roadside green spaces, and planned artificial water systems.This study enhances the PLUS model’s predictive precision through the GMOP model.However, integrating policy rules with multi-source data remains the developmental trend for simulating blue-green space at the urban scale.更多还原