【摘要】 面向2028年洛杉矶奥运会，我国奥运备战进入由规模扩张向质量提升、由单项突破向系统竞争转型的关键阶段。综合运用逻辑分析法、文献资料法与专家访谈法，围绕洛杉矶奥运会参赛目标，立足奥运项目结构新调整、国际竞技格局新演变与外部环境深刻变化，系统分析我国备战洛杉矶奥运会面临的现实挑战和可能的机遇。研究发现，我国面临传统优势项目核心统治力的稀释挑战、基础大项奖牌贡献度的支撑挑战、新增项目领域竞技基础薄的短板挑战、三大球跨越式突破的滞后挑战以及美国“主场效应”带来的多重压力等诸多方面严峻挑战。同时，我国也具备新型举国体制的资源统筹优势、长期备战实践的经验转化优势、传统金牌项目的技术壁垒优势、新增项目的先发培育优势以及国际体育治理参与的规则塑造优势等大好机遇。为此，应坚持系统思维和目标导向，构建周期备战的顶层设计；坚持分类施策，构建不同发展水平运动项目备战攻略；坚持效能驱动，塑造科技赋能与开放备战的新质战斗力；坚持开放合作，构建国际赛事交流与全球治理参与新格局。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games approach, China’s Olympic preparation has entered a critical stage characterized by a transition from scale expansion to quality enhancement and from event-specific breakthroughs to systematic competitiveness. Employing logical analysis, literature review, and expert interviews, this study, guided by China’s participation objectives for the Los Angeles Olympic Games, systematically examines the practical challenges and potential opportunities confronting China’s Olympic preparation in light of adjustments to the Olympic event structure, evolving international competitive dynamics, and profound changes in the external environment. The findings indicate that China faces multiple challenges, including the dilution of the dominance of its traditional medal-winning events, insufficient medal contributions from fundamental Olympic sports, limited competitive foundations in newly added events, the lagging development of the three major ball sports in achieving breakthrough progress, and the multifaceted pressures arising from the United States’ home advantage. At the same time, China also possesses significant opportunities, including the resource coordination advantages of the new system for mobilizing resources nationwide, the experience-conversion advantages derived from long-term Olympic preparation practices, the technological advantages and entry barriers established in traditional gold-medal events, the first-mover advantages in the cultivation of newly added events, and the rule-shaping advantages gained through participation in international sports governance. Accordingly, China should adhere to systems thinking and goal-oriented approaches to develop a top-level design for Olympic preparation across the entire preparation cycle. Specifically, differentiated strategies should be adopted to formulate tailored preparation plans for sports with different levels of development; efficiency-driven approaches should be emphasized to foster new-quality competitive capabilities empowered by scientific and technological innovation and open preparation mechanisms; and openness and cooperation should be strengthened to build a new landscape for international sporting exchanges and participation in global sports governance.更多还原