【摘要】 以安徽省域为研究区，采用Theil-Sen Median斜率估计，在栅格和市县尺度上评价了2001—2020年碳固持供需时空动态演变.结果表明：（1） 20年间全省碳固持服务供给量从97.8 Mt增至115.7 Mt,需求量从127.0 Mt增至416.0 Mt（“电力、蒸汽和热水的生产和供应业”贡献最大）,供给/需求比值大幅下降，整体供需失衡逐年加深；（2）全省碳固持服务供给量上升的面积占90.33%（大范围植被封育和持续自然生长）,需求量上升的面积占99.04%（人均CO₂排放量逐年大幅攀升）,城市、县城中心和重点乡镇镇区供需赤字较为严重；（3）全省仅阜阳市供需差小幅提升，其余15市均下降，供需急速失衡，2001年供需盈余（供需差>0）的县级行政区有30个，2020年仅剩12个（均为国家重点生态功能区）.依据供需关系定量差异，将全省104个县级行政区分为固碳优化区、碳汇发展区、协调发展区和低碳保持区4类，提出了相应的发展对策建议.更多还原

【Abstract】 Taking Anhui Province as the research area, Theil-Sen Median slope estimation was used to evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamic evolution of carbon sequestration supply and demand in the area over a period of 20 years from 2001 to 2020 at the grid and city county scales. The results show that:（1） The supply of carbon sequestration services in Anhui Province has increased from 97.8 Mt to 115.7 Mt over the 20 years; the demand has increased from 127.0 Mt to 416.0 Mt（with the “production and supply industry of electricity, steam, and hot water” contributing the most）. The supply/demand ratio has significantly decreased, and the overall supply-demand imbalance has been deepening year by year.（2） The area where the supply of carbon sequestration services in Anhui Province has increased accounts for 90.33%（due to large-scale vegetation closure and continuous natural growth）, and the area where the demand has increased accounts for 99.04%（due to a significant increase in per capita CO₂ emissions year by year）. The supply and demand deficit has been relatively severe in cities, county centers, and key towns and townships.（3） Only the supply-demand gap in Fuyang City has slightly increased, while in the other 15 cities, the gaps have all decreased, resulting in a rapid imbalance between supply and demand. In 2001, there were 30 county-level administrative regions with supply-demand surplus（supply-demand gap>0）, but in 2020, only 12 remained（all of which are national key ecological functional areas）. Based on the quantitative differences in supply and demand, the 104 county-level administrative divisions of Anhui Province are divided into four categories: carbon sequestration optimization zone, carbon sink development zone, coordinated development zone, and low-carbon conservation zone. Corresponding development strategies and suggestions are proposed.更多还原