【摘要】 通过建立封山禁牧对农户生计策略影响机理的逻辑框架并运用双重差分(DID)模型，对张家口和承德两市生态脆弱区农户问卷调查数据进行实证分析，揭示了封山禁牧对不同兼业类型农户生计策略的影响及其区域异质性。研究结果表明：封山禁牧确实促进了农户生计策略从传统小农经营、务农务牧向现代经营农业、务工经商转型；封山禁牧对农户选择专业型及多兼型生计策略产生了较为显著的负向影响，对农户选择传统兼业型、现代兼业型、非农兼业型生计策略则产生了较为显著的正向影响；山区封山禁牧对农户选择专业型生计策略的抑制作用、对农户选择现代兼业型及非农兼业型生计策略的促进作用均优于平原地区。封山禁牧能够促进农牧业生产方式(特别是山区)由传统化、分散化向现代化、规模化转变，也能够促进农牧业由单一产业向复合产业转变。更多还原

【Abstract】 To reveal the impact mechanism of the closing mountain and prohibiting grazing on the farmers’ livelihood strategies, we used the difference in differences(DID) model to empirically analyze the farmers questionnaire survey data in the ecologically fragile area of Zhangcheng, which reveal the regional heterogeneity impact of the closing mountain and prohibiting grazing on the livelihood strategies of different farmers.The results indicate that the closing mountain and prohibiting grazing has promoted the transformation of farmers’ livelihood strategies from traditional small-scale farming and animal husbandry to modern agricultural management strategies and doing business. The closing mountain and prohibiting grazing has had a significant negative impact on farmers choosing professional and multi purpose livelihood strategies, while it has a significant positive impact on farmers choosing traditional, modern, and non agricultural livelihood strategies. It is better than the plain areas to the inhibitory effect of farmers choosing professional livelihood strategies and the promoting effect of farmers choosing modern and non agricultural livelihood strategies in mountain areas. The closing mountain and grazing prohibition could promote the transformation of agricultural and animal husbandry production methods(especially the mountainous areas) from traditional and decentralized to modern and large-scale. It also promote the transformation of agricultural and animal husbandry from a single industry to a composite industry.更多还原