【摘要】 苹果绕实蝇（Rhagoletis pomonella）是重要检疫性有害生物，寄主范围广、繁殖力强，具有入侵风险。本文基于MaxEnt模型、GARP模型以及两者结合对苹果绕实蝇的适生区范围进行预测。结果表明，3种模型对苹果绕实蝇的潜在分布区的预测具有较高的准确度，其中GARP模型预测面积较大，但整体效果较好，而MaxEnt模型预测面积较小，但在局部处理上更细致。为克服单个模型的不确定性，将两个模型的预测结果进行集合，集合后的结果模拟精度显著提高，得出3种模型AUC值分别为0.894、0.871和0.983。苹果绕实蝇在我国潜在适生区范围较广，中高适生区主要集中在江苏、安徽、辽宁、山东等地区。本文对苹果绕实蝇在我国潜在地理分布进行了分析预测，为其监测预警提供了依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Rhagoletis pomonella is an important quarantine pest with wide host range,high fecundity and invasion risk. In this study,we applied MaxEnt model,GARP model and the two mixed model to predict the suitable habitat range of R. pomonella. The results showed that the three models had high accuracy in predicting the potential distribution area of R. pomonella. The GARP model had a larger prediction area,but the overall effect was better,while the MaxEnt model had a smaller prediction area with more detail in local processing. In order to overcome the uncertainty of the single model,the prediction results of the two models were combined,and the simulation accuracy of the combined results was significantly improved. The AUC values of the three models were 0.894,0.871 and 0.983,respectively. The potential suitable habitat range of R. pomonella in China is wide,and the middle and high suitable areas is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu,Anhui,Liaoning,and Shandong. Overall,the potential geographical distribution of R.pomonella in China is analyzed and predicted,which provides a basis for its monitoring and early warning.更多还原