【摘要】 研究目的：多维度评价中国粮食主产区耕地产能稳定性，为提升耕地可持续利用能力与粮食安全提供科学支撑。研究方法：构建“状态—功能”双维评价框架，采用空间计量法、综合指数法和聚类分析法，对2000—2023年中国粮食主产区耕地产能稳定性进行等级测度与空间分异分析。研究结果：(1)基于10 km网格评价结果显示，2023年粮食主产区耕地产能稳定性处于中等水平，状态以S2级为主(37.97%)，功能以F3级为主(52.30%)，综合稳定性以L2级(45.99%)和L3级(30.94%)占优，呈现西南山区低、东北与长江中下游中等、华北平原核心区高的空间梯度格局。(2)耕地产能稳定性省域差异显著，内蒙古和四川差异最为突出，分别体现“绿洲—荒漠”“高原—盆地”的空间对比；东北、华中等地区呈“平原—山地”分化。华北平原虽整体较高，但苏南、京津冀等快速城镇化区稳定性下降，反映出地形、资源与人类活动的综合影响。(3)基于“综合—状态—功能”三维数组耦合分类，划分出24类县域稳定性类型，其中“低状态—中高功能型”和“中高状态—中高功能型”占主导，说明功能稳定性在提升中低稳定性(L2级)耕地综合水平中发挥关键作用。进一步划定5类治理区，提出区域差异化提升策略。研究结论：中国粮食主产区耕地产能稳定性整体偏低，空间分异显著，未来应以分类分区、系统治理为导向，强化功能稳定性提升与生态修复，推动耕地系统向高产、稳产、可持续方向转型。更多还原

【Abstract】 The purpose of this study is to conduct a multidimensional evaluation of cultivated land productivity stability in the major grain production regions in China,providing scientific support for enhancing sustainable land use and safeguarding food security.The research methods are as follows.A dual-dimensional state-function evaluation framework is constructed,integrating spatial econometric analysis,comprehensive index methods,and cluster analysis to systematically assess the levels and spatial distribution characteristics of cultivated land productivity stability from 2000 to 2023,with a special focus on the spatial heterogeneity.The research results show that:1) at the 10 km grid scale,cultivated land productivity stability in 2023 was dominated by S2 in state (37.97%) and F3 in function (52.30%),with L2 level(45.99%) and L3 level(30.94%) prevailing in the composite measure,reflecting an overall medium level characterized by a spatial gradient of low in southwestern mountainous areas,medium in the Northeast and the middle-lower Yangtze Plain,and high in the North China Plain.2) The significant regional disparities were evident,with Inner Mongolia and Sichuan particularly affected by topography,resource endowment,and human activities.3) Based on a three-dimensional array coupling of composite-state-function,county-level cultivated land was classified into 24 types,where function grades were generally higher than or equal to state grades,underscoring the crucial role of functional stability in upgrading medium-stability (L2) cultivated land.Accordingly,five governance zones are delineated and optimization strategies proposed.In conclusion,the stability of cultivated land productivity in the major grain production regions in China remains relatively low with pronounced spatial heterogeneity,highlighting the need for differentiated enhancement measures to promote the transformation toward high-yield,stable,and sustainable cultivated land systems.更多还原