【摘要】 【目的】科学认知海洋强国战略下的陆海要素匹配规律与保障途径，对于有效提升海岸带韧性能力具有重要的参考意义。【方法】本文利用环渤海地区17个沿海城市2006—2020年面板数据，借助DCI模型和可变模糊识别模型测度陆海多要素匹配度与海岸带人地系统韧性水平，采用固定效应模型、中介效应模型和空间杜宾模型实证检验多要素匹配对海岸带人地系统韧性的作用机制及空间效应。【结果】(1)环渤海地区陆海多要素匹配度差异明显，形成陆域驱动、海域驱动与复合驱动的多元格局；海岸带人地系统韧性水平总体呈上升趋势，空间上呈“天津>山东>河北>辽宁”的非均衡分布。(2)多要素匹配对海岸带人地系统韧性具有显著的正向影响，进一步的空间溢出效应分析显示，其直接效应显著为正，间接效应存在正向溢出但并不显著。(3)技术流动水平与产业流动水平在多要素匹配对海岸带人地系统韧性的影响中发挥部分中介作用。(4)多要素匹配对海岸带人地系统韧性的影响在时间和区域上存在显著差异，时间上，2013—2020年的正向影响强于2006—2012年；区域上，影响强度依次为环渤海南部地区、西部地区和北部地区。【结论】多要素匹配能够显著促进海岸带人地系统韧性水平的提升。因此，未来应进一步立足本地资源禀赋优势，打破要素流动障碍，从而实现海岸带可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] Scientific understanding of the matching patterns of land-sea elements and safeguarding approaches under the strategy of building China into a strong maritime country is of great reference significance for effectively enhancing the resilience capacity of coastal zones. [Methods] The panel data from 17 coastal cities in the Bohai Rim Region from 2006 to 2020 were utilized. The DCI model and variable fuzzy identification model were employed to measure the land-sea multi-factor matching degree and coastal human-nature system resilience level. The fixed effects model, mediation effect model, and spatial Durbin model were applied to empirically examine the mechanisms and spatial effects of multi-factor matching on coastal human-nature system resilience. [Results](1) Significant spatial differentiation was observed in the matching degree of land-sea elements and coastal human-nature system resilience at the city level in the Bohai Rim Region. In comparison, the southern part of the Bohai Rim Region exhibited relatively balanced development.(2) Multi-factor matching exerted a significant positive effect on coastal human-nature system resilience. Further spatial spillover effect analysis revealed that its direct effect was significantly positive, while the indirect effect exhibited positive spillover but was not statistically significant.(3) The technology flow level and the industrial flow level played a partial mediating role in the impact of multi-factor matching on coastal human-nature system resilience.(4) Significant temporal and regional differences were observed in the impacts of multi-factor matching on coastal human-nature system resilience. Temporally, the positive impacts during 2013-2020 were stronger than those during 2006-2012. Regionally, the impact intensity followed the order: the southern region, the western region, and the northern region of the Bohai Rim Region. [Conclusion] Multi-factor matching can significantly contribute to the enhancement of coastal human-nature system resilience. Therefore, future efforts should focus on leveraging local resource endowment advantages and breaking barriers to factor flows to promote the sustainable development of coastal zones.更多还原