【摘要】 【目的】从固碳增汇新视角，科学测算中国海洋渔业绿色发展效率，有效把握其时空演化特征，助力粮食安全战略落实和“双碳”目标实现的协同推进。【方法】本文将海洋渔业CO2排放量与海洋渔业碳汇以不确定性变量的形式引入EBM模型中，对2008—2023年中国9个沿海省份的海洋渔业绿色发展效率进行测算，而后利用核密度估计、标准差椭圆、基尼系数和马尔可夫矩阵探析其时空演化特征。【结果】(1)从时序演化特征来看，中国海洋渔业绿色发展效率整体呈波动式上升趋势，经历了“先抑后扬—震荡发展—稳步提升”的过程。(2)从空间分布特征来看，海洋渔业绿色发展效率逐渐演变为“东部>北部>南部”。进一步，沿海省份海洋渔业绿色发展效率总体差距减小，区域不平衡现象缓解。(3)从趋势预测来看，沿海省份海洋渔业绿色发展效率具有维持原有等级的稳定性，存在“低效率锁定”现象，实现跨越式发展的概率较小。【结论】“十五五”时期，需立足其区域资源禀赋与协调发展需求，制定差异化的扶持政策，推动海洋渔业的绿色协同发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] From a new perspective of carbon reduction and sinks, scientifically measure the green development efficiency of China’s marine fisheries, and effectively grasp its spatial evolution characteristics, thereby synergistically advancing the implementation of food security strategies and the achievement of the “dual carbon” goals. [Methods] CO2 emissions and carbon sinks of marine fisheries were introduced into the EBM model as uncertain variables. The green development efficiency of marine fisheries in nine coastal provinces of China from 2008 to 2023 was measured. Subsequently, its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics were analyzed using kernel density estimation, standard deviational ellipse, Gini coefficient, and Markov Matrix.[Results](1) From the perspective of temporal evolution, the green development efficiency of China’s marine fisheries showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, underwent the process of “initial suppression followed by recovery—oscillatory development—steady improvement”.(2) In terms of spatial distribution, the green development efficiency of marine fisheries gradually evolved into a pattern of “eastern region > northern region > southern region.” Furthermore, the overall regional disparity in marine fisheries’ green development efficiency decreased, indicating a reduction in regional imbalance.(3) According to the trend prediction, coastal provinces demonstrated stability in maintaining their original levels of green development efficiency of marine fisheries, showing evidence of “low-efficiency lock-in” with a low probability of achieving leapfrog development. [Conclusion] During the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, differentiated support policies should be formulated based on regional resource endowment and the need for coordinated development, so as to promote the green and synergistic development of marine fisheries.更多还原