【摘要】 气候变化所带来的长期不利影响和突发极端事件，已经成为城市安全面临的重要挑战。为提升气候变化背景下城市安全韧性水平，该文基于CMIP6模拟数据，系统分析了气候变化背景下我国城市可能面临的极端灾害致灾特征，梳理了城市安全面临的挑战与应对方面的不足，进一步提出气候韧性安全城市的内涵和提升理论框架。研究发现，全球变暖趋势的持续发展加剧了我国城市面临的破纪录极端灾害事件发生的可能性，不同温升水平下我国的复合降水湿热、复合干旱热浪等极端事件破纪录概率呈上升趋势。面对气候变化带来的威胁，我国城市仍然存在系统性风险性认知不足、前瞻性规划不足、工程设防标准不足和防灾应急能力不足等短板，这些短板影响社会经济可持续发展。基于影响城市气候韧性安全水平的关键影响因素，研究提出了气候变化下城市韧性安全水平的“气候变化—城市系统—应对能力”三要素和“变化辨识—风险评估—目标制定—韧性提升—监测调整”五行动的理论框架，以期为推动气候变化下城市安全研究提供基础理论指导与科学范式，助力城市适应气候变化的能力与安全水平的提升。更多还原

【Abstract】 The long-term adverse impacts of climate change, together with the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events, have become major threats to urban safety. To enhance urban safety resilience under climate change, this study uses CMIP6 simulation data to systematically analyze the characteristics of extreme weather and climate events that Chinese cities may face and identifies the key challenges and deficiencies in current urban safety responses. Furthermore, the study develops a conceptual definition and theoretical framework for climate-resilient safe cities. The findings indicate that the ongoing trend of global warming is increasing the likelihood that Chinese cities will experience record-breaking extreme hazard events. Across different levels of temperature rise, the probabilities of record-breaking compound precipitation-humid heat events and compound drought-heatwave events consistently increase. Despite escalating climate-related threats, Chinese cities still suffer from insufficient systemic risk awareness, a lack of forward-looking urban planning, inadequate engineering design standards for hazard protection, and limited disaster prevention and emergency response capacity, all of which undermine sustainable socio-economic development. Building on the key factors that shape urban climate-resilient safety, this study proposes a theoretical framework comprising three core components(climate change, urban systems, response capacity) and five action steps(change identification, risk assessment, goal setting, resilience enhancement, monitoring and adjustment).This framework is intended to provide fundamental theoretical guidance and a scientific paradigm for advancing research on urban safety under climate change, and to support improvements in cities’ adaptive capacity and safety.更多还原