【摘要】 中国山地旅游景区广布，其中涉水景区居多，极易遭受山洪灾害威胁。为保障涉水山地景区发生山洪灾害时游客的安全，该文对景区开展山洪灾害预警临界雨量的界定研究。山地景区气象监测站点覆盖范围有限，且长时间序列数据匮乏，因此，文中采用山洪淹没倒溯方法，以湖北恩施躲避峡景区2019年8月4日山洪事件为例，假设降雨情景模拟山洪灾害过程，将灾害事件现场和文献资料所形成的山洪灾害风险等级表进行对比，进而确定各山洪风险等级所对应的预警雨量。利用HEC-HMS水文模型和FLO-2D水动力模型进行洪水淹没模拟，结合历史降雨数据，反推得到预警雨量。研究结果表明：根据假设预警雨量，将涉水景区山洪风险等级划分为四级，即躲避峡流域一级山洪风险的预警雨量为57 mm,二级预警雨量为51 mm,三级预警雨量为45 mm,四级预警雨量为38 mm。在前峰雨型56 mm/h、二级风险的情景下，如果游客感知到降雨就开始避险，会有20 min的避险时间；若为极端降雨84 mm/h、一级风险的情景下，游客避险时间则少于10 min。因此，在上述降雨情景及风险等级下，建议开展相应的风险管理措施，在景区加强雨量监测，做好应急预案，保证游客的安全迅速撤离。更多还原

【Abstract】 Mountain tourist attractions are widely distributed in China, which are mostly water-related, and are extremely vulnerable to flash flood disasters. In order to ensure the safety of tourists when flash floods occur in water-related mountainous scenic spots, this paper aimed to study the definition of the critical rainfall for flash flood disaster warning in scenic spots. Due to the limited coverage of meteorological monitoring stations in mountainous scenic spots and the lack of long-term series data. So, the flash flood flooding backtracking method is adopted. Taking the Duobi Gorge Scenic Spot on August 4th, 2019 flash flood incident in Enshi, Hubei as an example, the flash flood disaster process is simulated after assuming rainfall scenarios, and compared with the flash flood disaster risk level table formed by the disaster event site and literature data, so as to determine the warning rainfall corresponding to each flash flood risk level. The HEC-HMS hydrological model and the FLO-2D hydrodynamic model are used to simulate flood inundation, and the warning rainfall is reversed in combination with historical rainfall data. The main research results are, according to the assumed warning rainfall, the flash flood risk level of the water-related scenic area is divided into four levels: the warning rainfall of the first-level flash flood risk in the Duobi Gorge Basin is 57 mm, the second-level warning rainfall is 51 mm, the third-level warning rainfall is 45 mm, and the fourth-level warning rainfall is 38 mm. In the scenario of the front peak rainfall type of 56 mm/h and the second-level risk, if tourists start to avoid danger when they sense the rainfall, there will be 20 minutes of avoidance time; if it is an extreme rainfall of 84 mm/h and the first-level risk scenario, the avoidance time of tourists is less than 10 minutes. Therefore, under the above rainfall scenarios and risk levels, it is recommended to carry out risk management measures, strengthen rainfall monitoring in scenic areas, and make emergency plans to ensure the safe and rapid evacuation of tourists.更多还原